Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin prediction & analysis
84%
Footrivo pick
Union Santa Fe or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Union Santa Fe to win @ 1.83 – our chance 63% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultUnion Santa Fe to win ✓63% · @1.83
Double chanceUnion Santa Fe or draw ✓84% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 6.92
Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin preview and prediction
The match
Union Santa Fe host Sarmiento Junin in the Liga Profesional Argentina on Friday 28 August, with kick-off at 23:00 (WAT) at Estadio 15 de Abril. Union Santa Fe are 16th with 42 points from 32 games (in the bottom half), while Sarmiento Junin sit 19th on 40 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Union Santa Fe's last 5: WLLWL Most recently they beat Aldosivi 3–1 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Sarmiento Junin's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Estudiantes L.P. 2–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Sarmiento Junin arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 26 February 2026, finished Sarmiento Junin 1–3 Union Santa Fe.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Union Santa Fe and 0.7 for Sarmiento Junin. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 51%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Union Santa Fe 63%, draw 20%, Sarmiento Junin 16%.
Safer route: Union Santa Fe or draw (84%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Union Santa Fe to win at 1.83 – 63% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Union Santa Fe or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Union Santa Fe 1–0 Sarmiento Junin. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Union Santa Fe63%fair 1.58 · @1.83
Draw20%fair 4.88 · @3.35
Sarmiento Junin16%fair 6.21 · @4.40
2.51Expected goals
1.77Union Santa Fe xG
0.73Sarmiento Junin xG
51%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–08%
From our goals model: Union Santa Fe 1.8 – 0.7 Sarmiento Junin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin?
Our pick is Union Santa Fe or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin?
On our numbers Union Santa Fe have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Sarmiento Junin 16%.
How many goals will there be in Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin?
Our predicted score is Union Santa Fe 1–0 Sarmiento Junin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin?
Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Friday 28 August 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio 15 de Abril.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
