Independiente vs Gimnasia M. prediction & analysis
63%
Footrivo pick
Independiente to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.62 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.62Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 53% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultIndependiente to win ✗63% · @1.62
Double chanceIndependiente or draw ✗89% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.16
Independiente vs Gimnasia M. preview and prediction
The match
Independiente host Gimnasia M. in the Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday 30 August, with kick-off at 23:15 (WAT) at Libertadores de America. Independiente are 13th with 47 points from 32 games (in the top half), while Gimnasia M. sit 17th on 41 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Independiente's last 5: DWLLL Most recently they drew with Independ. Rivadavia 0–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Gimnasia M.'s last 5: WWLWL Most recently they beat Gimnasia L.P. 3–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Gimnasia M. arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 25 February 2026, finished Gimnasia M. 1–1 Independiente.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.8 for Independiente and 0.6 for Gimnasia M.. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Independiente 63%, draw 26%, Gimnasia M. 11%.
Safer route: Independiente or draw (89%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 2.05.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.05 – 53% on our numbers against 49% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Independiente to win – a 63% chance at odds of 1.62, above our fair price of 1.58, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Independiente 1–0 Gimnasia M.. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Independiente63%fair 1.58 · @1.62
Draw26%fair 3.92 · @3.50
Gimnasia M.11%fair 8.83 · @5.50
2.38Expected goals
1.75Independiente xG
0.63Gimnasia M. xG
53%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–014%
1–110%
0–09%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Independiente 1.8 – 0.6 Gimnasia M. expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Independiente vs Gimnasia M.?
Our pick is Independiente to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Independiente vs Gimnasia M.?
On our numbers Independiente have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Gimnasia M. 11%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente vs Gimnasia M.?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente vs Gimnasia M.?
Our predicted score is Independiente 1–0 Gimnasia M., the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Independiente vs Gimnasia M.?
Independiente vs Gimnasia M. (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 23:15 (West Africa Time) at Libertadores de America.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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