Estudiantes L.P. vs Independiente prediction & analysis
65%
Footrivo pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
2
Value bet: Independiente to win @ 3.70 – our chance 31% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultEstudiantes L.P. to win ✗46% · @2.12
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.57
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · @1.13
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 6.98
Estudiantes L.P. vs Independiente preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Profesional Argentina sees Estudiantes L.P. take on Independiente on Sunday 26 July, kicking off at 21:15 (WAT) at Estadio Ciudad de La Plata. Estudiantes L.P. are 11th with 47 points from 32 games (in the top half), while Independiente sit 13th on 47 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Estudiantes L.P.'s last 5: WWLDW Most recently they beat Rosario Central 3–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Independiente's last 5: WWDWL Most recently they beat Union Santa Fe 2–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.2 for Estudiantes L.P. and 0.9 for Independiente. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely.
Value angle: Independiente to win at 3.70 – 31% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Estudiantes L.P. 1–0 Independiente. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Estudiantes L.P.46%fair 2.18 · @2.12
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.05
Independiente31%fair 3.26 · @3.70
2.14Expected goals
1.22Estudiantes L.P. xG
0.92Independiente xG
49%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–012%
0–111%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Estudiantes L.P. 1.2 – 0.9 Independiente expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Estudiantes L.P. to win✗
46%
2.18
2.12
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.96
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.63
1.57
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.13
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Estudiantes L.P. / FT Estudiantes L.P.✗
25%
4.05
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
6.98
–
Form
Estudiantes L.P. – last 6
WWLDWD
31 May
vs Rosario Central
3–0
W
27 May
vs Independiente Medellin
1–0
W
21 May
@ Flamengo
0–1
L
6 May
@ Cusco
1–1
D
3 May
@ Platense
2–0
W
30 Apr
vs Flamengo
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Independiente – last 6
WWDWLL
23 May
@ Union Santa Fe
2–0
W
18 Apr
vs Defensa Y Justicia
3–1
W
11 Apr
@ Boca Juniors
1–1
D
27 Mar
vs Atenas
4–2
W
22 Mar
vs Talleres Cordoba
1–2
L
17 Mar
@ Instituto Cordoba
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Estudiantes L.P. and Independiente.
What is the prediction for Estudiantes L.P. vs Independiente?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Estudiantes L.P. vs Independiente?
On our numbers Estudiantes L.P. have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Independiente 31%.
How many goals will there be in Estudiantes L.P. vs Independiente?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Estudiantes L.P. vs Independiente?
Our predicted score is Estudiantes L.P. 1–0 Independiente, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Estudiantes L.P. vs Independiente?
Estudiantes L.P. vs Independiente (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Sunday 26 July 2026 at 21:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Ciudad de La Plata.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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