Toluca vs Atletico San Luis preview and prediction
The match
Toluca host Atletico San Luis in the Liga MX on Monday 13 April, with kick-off at 02:00 (WAT) at Estadio Nemesio Diez. Toluca are 4th with 27 points from 16 games (in the top four), while Atletico San Luis sit 14th on 19 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Toluca's last 5: WLDWD Most recently they beat Los Angeles Galaxy 4–2 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Atletico San Luis's last 5: WLDLW Most recently they beat Monterrey 2–1 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.3 for Toluca and 0.8 for Atletico San Luis. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 60% and both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Toluca 72%, draw 17%, Atletico San Luis 11%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.73.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Toluca to win – a 72% chance at odds of 1.38. Predicted score: Toluca 2–0 Atletico San Luis. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Toluca72%fair 1.40 · @1.38
Draw17%fair 5.77 · @4.80
Atletico San Luis11%fair 9.04 · @7.30
3.07Expected goals
2.29Toluca xG
0.78Atletico San Luis xG
57%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–012%
1–011%
2–19%
3–09%
1–18%
3–17%
From our goals model: Toluca 2.3 – 0.8 Atletico San Luis expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca to win✗
72%
1.40
1.38
Double chance
Toluca or draw✓
89%
1.12
1.08
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.67
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.57
Half-time result
Toluca ahead at half-time✗
52%
1.92
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca / FT Toluca✗
48%
2.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
12%
8.19
–
Form
Toluca – last 6
WLDWDL
9 Apr
vs Los Angeles Galaxy
4–2
W
5 Apr
@ Club Queretaro
0–1
L
23 Mar
@ Pachuca
1–1
D
19 Mar
vs San Diego
4–0
W
15 Mar
vs Atlas
1–1
D
12 Mar
@ San Diego
2–3
L
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Atletico San Luis – last 6
WLDLWL
5 Apr
@ Monterrey
2–1
W
22 Mar
vs Leon
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Pachuca
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Cruz Azul
0–3
L
4 Mar
vs Mazatlán
4–1
W
1 Mar
vs Puebla
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Toluca and Atletico San Luis.
What is the prediction for Toluca vs Atletico San Luis?
Our pick is Toluca to win with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Toluca vs Atletico San Luis?
On our numbers Toluca have a 72% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Atletico San Luis 11%.
How many goals will there be in Toluca vs Atletico San Luis?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toluca vs Atletico San Luis?
Our predicted score is Toluca 2–0 Atletico San Luis, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Toluca vs Atletico San Luis?
Toluca vs Atletico San Luis (Liga MX) kicks off on Monday 13 April 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nemesio Diez.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
