The Liga MX sees Puebla take on Leon on Saturday 11 April, kicking off at 02:00 (WAT) at Estadio Cuauhtemoc. Puebla are 13th with 19 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Leon sit 7th on 23 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Puebla's last 5: DLDLW Most recently they drew with FC Juarez 1–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Leon's last 5: WWLLL Most recently they beat Atlas 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.5 for Puebla and 1.3 for Leon. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 60%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Puebla 44%, draw 21%, Leon 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.57.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Puebla 1–1 Leon. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Puebla44%fair 2.27 · @2.30
Draw21%fair 4.83 · @3.50
Leon35%fair 2.83 · @2.88
2.89Expected goals
1.54Puebla xG
1.35Leon xG
60%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
2–19%
1–09%
1–28%
0–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Puebla 1.5 – 1.3 Leon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Puebla to win✗
44%
2.27
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.66
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.42
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.47
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Puebla / FT Puebla✗
25%
4.01
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.23
–
Form
Puebla – last 6
DLDLWW
4 Apr
vs FC Juarez
1–1
D
23 Mar
@ Santos Laguna
1–2
L
14 Mar
vs Necaxa
0–0
D
8 Mar
@ Pachuca
1–2
L
5 Mar
vs Tigres UANL
3–1
W
1 Mar
@ Atletico San Luis
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Leon – last 6
WWLLLW
5 Apr
vs Atlas
2–0
W
22 Mar
@ Atletico San Luis
2–1
W
19 Mar
@ Guadalajara Chivas
0–5
L
15 Mar
vs Club Tijuana
0–3
L
7 Mar
@ Mazatlán
2–4
L
1 Mar
vs Necaxa
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Puebla and Leon.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Puebla vs Leon?
On our numbers Puebla have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Leon 35%.
How many goals will there be in Puebla vs Leon?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Puebla vs Leon?
Our predicted score is Puebla 1–1 Leon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Puebla vs Leon?
Puebla vs Leon (Liga MX) kicks off on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Cuauhtemoc.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
