Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.30Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultPuebla to win ✗55% · @1.91
Double chancePuebla or draw ✓81% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.11
Puebla vs Necaxa preview and prediction
The match
Necaxa travel to Estadio Cuauhtemoc in the Liga MX on Saturday 14 March (02:00 WAT) to face Puebla. Puebla are 13th with 19 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Necaxa sit 17th on 13 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Puebla's last 5: LWWLL Most recently they lost to Pachuca 1–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.4 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Necaxa's last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to U.N.A.M. - Pumas 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Puebla arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.6.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.0 for Puebla and 1.1 for Necaxa. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 60% and both teams to score at 62%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Puebla 55%, draw 26%, Necaxa 19%.
Safer route: Puebla or draw (81%) at 1.30.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.60.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Puebla or draw – a 81% chance at odds of 1.30, above our fair price of 1.23, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Puebla 1–1 Necaxa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Puebla55%fair 1.80 · @1.91
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @3.30
Necaxa19%fair 5.30 · @3.30
3.11Expected goals
1.99Puebla xG
1.12Necaxa xG
62%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
2–110%
1–09%
2–09%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Puebla 2.0 – 1.1 Necaxa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Puebla to win✗
55%
1.80
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Puebla or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.30 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.61
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
–
Half-time result
Puebla ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Puebla / FT Puebla✗
36%
2.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.11
–
Form
Puebla – last 5
LWWLL
8 Mar
@ Pachuca
1–2
L
5 Mar
vs Tigres UANL
3–1
W
1 Mar
@ Atletico San Luis
1–0
W
21 Feb
vs Club America
0–4
L
14 Feb
vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas
2–3
L
1.4Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
60%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Necaxa – last 5
LLLLW
7 Mar
vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas
0–1
L
4 Mar
@ Pachuca
1–2
L
1 Mar
@ Leon
1–2
L
22 Feb
vs Toluca
0–3
L
15 Feb
@ FC Juarez
2–1
W
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
60%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Puebla and Necaxa.
Our pick is Puebla or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Puebla vs Necaxa?
On our numbers Puebla have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Necaxa 19%.
How many goals will there be in Puebla vs Necaxa?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Puebla vs Necaxa?
Our predicted score is Puebla 1–1 Necaxa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Puebla vs Necaxa?
Puebla vs Necaxa (Liga MX) kicks off on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Cuauhtemoc.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
