Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultToluca to win ✓73% · @1.32
Double chanceToluca or draw ✓91% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.90
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗13% · fair 7.65
Toluca vs FC Juarez preview and prediction
The match
Toluca host FC Juarez in the Liga MX on Monday 9 March, with kick-off at 00:00 (WAT) at Estadio Nemesio Diez. Toluca are 4th with 27 points from 16 games (in the top four), while FC Juarez sit 18th on 11 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Toluca's last 4: WWWW Most recently they beat U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3–2 away. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
FC Juarez's last 3: WWL Most recently they beat Club America 2–1 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Toluca arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 2.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.3 for Toluca and 0.7 for FC Juarez. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 58% and both teams to score at 53%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Toluca 73%, draw 19%, FC Juarez 9%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.90.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Toluca 2–0 FC Juarez. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Toluca73%fair 1.37 · @1.32
Draw19%fair 5.37 · @4.75
FC Juarez9%fair 11.56 · @9.60
3.03Expected goals
2.32Toluca xG
0.71FC Juarez xG
53%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–013%
1–011%
3–010%
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%
From our goals model: Toluca 2.3 – 0.7 FC Juarez expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca to win✓
73%
1.37
1.32
Double chance
Toluca or draw✓
91%
1.09
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.87
1.90
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
1.50
Half-time result
Toluca ahead at half-time✗
53%
1.87
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca / FT Toluca✗
50%
2.02
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
13%
7.65
–
Form
Toluca – last 4
WWWW
4 Mar
@ U.N.A.M. - Pumas
3–2
W
1 Mar
vs Guadalajara Chivas
2–0
W
22 Feb
@ Necaxa
3–0
W
14 Feb
vs Club Tijuana
1–0
W
2.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
FC Juarez – last 3
WWL
5 Mar
@ Club America
2–1
W
28 Feb
vs Atlas
3–1
W
15 Feb
vs Necaxa
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Toluca and FC Juarez.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Toluca vs FC Juarez?
On our numbers Toluca have a 73% chance of winning, the draw 19% and FC Juarez 9%.
How many goals will there be in Toluca vs FC Juarez?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toluca vs FC Juarez?
Our predicted score is Toluca 2–0 FC Juarez, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Toluca vs FC Juarez?
Toluca vs FC Juarez (Liga MX) kicks off on Monday 9 March 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nemesio Diez.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
