Value bet: Fluminense to win @ 3.10 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultSao Paulo to win37% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win72% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score55% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals76% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–18% · fair 12.85
Sao Paulo vs Fluminense preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Sao Paulo take on Fluminense on Friday 20 November, kicking off at 01:30 (WAT) at Estadio Do MorumBIS. Sao Paulo are 10th with 44 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Fluminense sit 4th on 57 points (in the top four). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Sao Paulo's last 5: DLDWW Most recently they drew with Corinthians 0–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Fluminense's last 5: WWLWL Most recently they beat Vitoria 3–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.2 for Sao Paulo and 1.2 for Fluminense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sao Paulo 37%, draw 28%, Fluminense 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Fluminense to win at 3.10 – 35% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Prediction
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Sao Paulo 1–1 Fluminense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sao Paulo37%fair 2.67 · @2.30
Draw28%fair 3.57 · @3.20
Fluminense35%fair 2.89 · @3.10
2.42Expected goals
1.20Sao Paulo xG
1.23Fluminense xG
55%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–011%
0–09%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Sao Paulo 1.2 – 1.2 Fluminense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Sao Paulo
Fluminense
Attack vs Serie A average
-23%
+23%
Goals conceded vs average
-15%
-8%
Our expected goals here
1.08
1.19
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sao Paulo to win
37%
2.67
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win
72%
1.39
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
55%
1.80
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
70%
1.43
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
55%
1.80
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
76%
1.32
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fluminense / FT Fluminense
21%
4.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
8%
12.85
–
Form
Sao Paulo – last 6
DLDWWL
5 Nov
vs Corinthians
0–0
D
29 Oct
@ Bahia
2–3
L
24 Oct
@ Mirassol
1–1
D
18 Oct
vs Vasco DA Gama
1–0
W
11 Oct
vs Vitoria
2–1
W
8 Oct
@ Cruzeiro
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Fluminense – last 6
WWLWLL
7 Nov
@ Vitoria
3–0
W
28 Oct
vs Internacional
2–1
W
24 Oct
@ Chapecoense-sc
1–2
L
22 Oct
@ Palmeiras
1–0
W
18 Oct
vs Santos
1–2
L
15 Oct
vs Palmeiras
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sao Paulo and Fluminense.
What is the prediction for Sao Paulo vs Fluminense?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Sao Paulo vs Fluminense?
On our numbers Sao Paulo have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Fluminense 35%.
How many goals will there be in Sao Paulo vs Fluminense?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sao Paulo vs Fluminense?
Our predicted score is Sao Paulo 1–1 Fluminense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Sao Paulo vs Fluminense?
Sao Paulo vs Fluminense (Serie A) kicks off on Friday 20 November 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Do MorumBIS.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
