Serie A · Brazil · Estádio Urbano CaldeiraSantos vs Palmeiras prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.75 · bookmaker 1.67 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Palmeiras to win @ 2.20 – our chance 49% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Santos 1.1 – 1.6 Palmeiras expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Palmeiras shade it despite being away from home – 49% to win, against 29% for Santos.
Santos have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.3 per game. Palmeiras have 15 points from their last 6 (5W 0D 1L), averaging 1.8 scored and 0.5 conceded. Palmeiras come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.7 goals (1.1 for Santos, 1.6 for Palmeiras). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 57%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 0–1 (10%), 1–2 (9%).
In their last 2 meetings, Santos have won 0, Palmeiras have won 1 and 1 ended level, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 57% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.67 is close to our fair price of 1.75. For a bigger price, Palmeiras to win at 2.20 is our value angle (49% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Palmeiras to win ✗ | 49% | 2.05 | 2.20 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.33 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 57% | 1.75 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 75% | 1.32 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 51% | 1.96 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.41 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 42% | 2.40 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Palmeiras / FT Palmeiras ✗ | 28% | 3.53 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 10% | 9.65 | – |
Form
Santos – last 6
| 25 Oct | vs Bahia | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | @ Fluminense | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | @ Atletico-MG | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Oct | vs Flamengo | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Oct | @ Sao Paulo | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | @ Remo | 2–1 | W |
Palmeiras – last 6
| 24 Oct | vs RB Bragantino | 2–0 | W |
| 22 Oct | vs Fluminense | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Oct | @ Atletico Paranaense | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Oct | @ Fluminense | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Corinthians | 4–1 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs Bahia | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
| 3 Sep 2026 | Santos v Palmeiras | 0–0 |
| 27 Aug 2026 | Palmeiras v Santos | 3–0 |
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 34 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 34 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 34 | +4 | 50 |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |  Santos | 34 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 34 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 34 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 34 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 33 | -7 | 41 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 34 | -9 | 40 |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 34 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 33 | -35 | 21 |
More Serie A predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Santos vs Palmeiras?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Santos vs Palmeiras?
On our numbers Santos have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Palmeiras 49%.
How many goals will there be in Santos vs Palmeiras?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
When is Santos vs Palmeiras?
Santos vs Palmeiras (Serie A) kicks off on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.