Good pick · fair odds 1.66 · bookmaker 1.70 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.70Odds
2
Value bet: Gremio to win @ 3.20 – our chance 38% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCoritiba to win ✗38% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 10.69
Coritiba vs Gremio preview and prediction
The match
Gremio travel to Estádio Couto Pereira in the Serie A on Monday 26 October (23:30 WAT) to face Coritiba. Coritiba are 12th with 42 points from 34 games (in the bottom half), while Gremio sit 18th on 37 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Coritiba's last 5: LDLLD Most recently they lost to Atletico-MG 0–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Gremio's last 5: LDDDL Most recently they lost to Cruzeiro 2–4 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.3 for Coritiba and 1.3 for Gremio. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 60%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Coritiba 38%, draw 24%, Gremio 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Gremio to win at 3.20 – 38% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 60% chance at odds of 1.70, above our fair price of 1.66, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Coritiba 1–1 Gremio. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Coritiba38%fair 2.60 · @2.10
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @3.25
Gremio38%fair 2.65 · @3.20
2.66Expected goals
1.34Coritiba xG
1.32Gremio xG
60%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Coritiba 1.3 – 1.3 Gremio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Coritiba to win✗
38%
2.60
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.66
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.34
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.99
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Coritiba / FT Coritiba✗
22%
4.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
9%
10.69
–
Form
Coritiba – last 6
LDLLDL
17 Oct
@ Atletico-MG
0–1
L
12 Oct
vs Botafogo
1–1
D
9 Oct
@ Fluminense
0–4
L
20 Sep
@ Vasco DA Gama
0–5
L
12 Sep
vs Atletico Paranaense
3–3
D
6 Sep
vs Mirassol
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Gremio – last 6
LDDDLL
18 Oct
vs Cruzeiro
2–4
L
11 Oct
vs Internacional
1–1
D
7 Oct
@ Remo
1–1
D
20 Sep
vs Palmeiras
0–0
D
16 Sep
@ Botafogo
2–3
L
12 Sep
vs Vasco DA Gama
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Coritiba and Gremio.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Coritiba vs Gremio?
On our numbers Coritiba have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Gremio 38%.
How many goals will there be in Coritiba vs Gremio?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Coritiba vs Gremio?
Our predicted score is Coritiba 1–1 Gremio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Coritiba vs Gremio?
Coritiba vs Gremio (Serie A) kicks off on Monday 26 October 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Couto Pereira.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
