Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Chapecoense-sc take on Atletico Paranaense on Monday 12 October, kicking off at 23:30 (WAT) at Arena Condá. Chapecoense-sc are 20th with 21 points from 33 games (in the bottom three), while Atletico Paranaense sit 5th on 54 points (in the top half). A gap of 33 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Chapecoense-sc's last 5: LDDLW Most recently they lost to Vitoria 0–4 away. They average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Atletico Paranaense's last 5: DWDLD Most recently they drew with Atletico-MG 2–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Atletico Paranaense arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.2 for Chapecoense-sc and 1.7 for Atletico Paranaense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 58%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 58% chance at odds of 1.75. Predicted score: Chapecoense-sc 1–1 Atletico Paranaense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Chapecoense-sc29%fair 3.40 · @3.40
Draw21%fair 4.75 · @3.30
Atletico Paranaense50%fair 2.02 · @2.00
2.89Expected goals
1.22Chapecoense-sc xG
1.67Atletico Paranaense xG
58%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
0–19%
0–28%
2–17%
1–07%
From our goals model: Chapecoense-sc 1.2 – 1.7 Atletico Paranaense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Paranaense to win✓
50%
2.02
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.74
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.49
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Paranaense / FT Atletico Paranaense✓
29%
3.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.57
–
Form
Chapecoense-sc – last 6
LDDLWL
8 Oct
@ Vitoria
0–4
L
26 Sep
@ Atletico Nacional
1–1
D
19 Sep
@ Atletico-MG
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Internacional
1–2
L
6 Sep
@ Corinthians
2–1
W
30 Aug
@ Gremio
1–3
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Atletico Paranaense – last 6
DWDLDW
9 Oct
vs Atletico-MG
2–2
D
20 Sep
vs Bahia
2–1
W
12 Sep
@ Coritiba
3–3
D
6 Sep
@ Cruzeiro
1–3
L
30 Aug
vs Fluminense
3–3
D
25 Aug
@ Botafogo
3–2
W
2.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chapecoense-sc and Atletico Paranaense.
What is the prediction for Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense?
On our numbers Chapecoense-sc have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Atletico Paranaense 50%.
How many goals will there be in Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our predicted score is Chapecoense-sc 1–1 Atletico Paranaense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense?
Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense (Serie A) kicks off on Monday 12 October 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Condá.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
