The Serie A sees Atletico-MG take on Vitoria on Saturday 29 August, kicking off at 22:30 (WAT) at MRV Arena. Atletico-MG are 7th with 50 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Vitoria sit 15th on 38 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Atletico-MG's last 5: DDDWW Most recently they drew with Cruzeiro 1–1 away. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Vitoria's last 5: LLWLW Most recently they lost to Vasco DA Gama 0–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Atletico-MG arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.6 for Atletico-MG and 0.9 for Vitoria. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 54%.
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Atletico-MG 1–0 Vitoria. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico-MG58%fair 1.71 · @1.73
Draw19%fair 5.21 · @3.60
Vitoria22%fair 4.46 · @4.70
2.51Expected goals
1.64Atletico-MG xG
0.87Vitoria xG
54%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
1–112%
2–011%
2–110%
0–08%
0–17%
From our goals model: Atletico-MG 1.6 – 0.9 Vitoria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico-MG to win✓
58%
1.71
1.73
Double chance
Either team to win✓
81%
1.24
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
1.90
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.87
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico-MG / FT Atletico-MG✓
34%
2.94
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.49
–
Form
Atletico-MG – last 6
DDDWWD
26 Aug
@ Cruzeiro
1–1
D
22 Aug
@ Internacional
0–0
D
19 Aug
vs RB Bragantino
2–2
D
16 Aug
vs Gremio
3–0
W
12 Aug
@ RB Bragantino
1–0
W
8 Aug
@ Remo
2–2
D
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Vitoria – last 6
LLWLWL
27 Aug
@ Vasco DA Gama
0–1
L
23 Aug
vs Bahia
0–2
L
16 Aug
vs Botafogo
1–0
W
9 Aug
@ Flamengo
0–2
L
7 Aug
vs Atletico Paranaense
4–0
W
4 Aug
@ Atletico Paranaense
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico-MG and Vitoria.
What is the prediction for Atletico-MG vs Vitoria?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Atletico-MG vs Vitoria?
On our numbers Atletico-MG have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Vitoria 22%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico-MG vs Vitoria?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico-MG vs Vitoria?
Our predicted score is Atletico-MG 1–0 Vitoria, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Atletico-MG vs Vitoria?
Atletico-MG vs Vitoria (Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at MRV Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
