Value bet: Atletico Paranaense to win @ 3.10 – our chance 37% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBotafogo to win ✗38% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 10.74
Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense preview and prediction
The match
Atletico Paranaense travel to Estádio Nilton Santos in the Serie A on Tuesday 25 August (00:00 WAT) to face Botafogo. Botafogo are 11th with 42 points from 34 games (in the bottom half), while Atletico Paranaense sit 5th on 54 points (in the top half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Botafogo's last 5: WLLDW Most recently they beat Cienciano 1–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Atletico Paranaense's last 5: DWLWD Most recently they drew with RB Bragantino 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Atletico Paranaense arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 29 March 2026, finished Atletico Paranaense 4–1 Botafogo.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.3 for Botafogo and 1.3 for Atletico Paranaense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 54%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Atletico Paranaense to win at 3.10 – 37% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 54% chance at odds of 1.83. Predicted score: Botafogo 1–1 Atletico Paranaense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Botafogo38%fair 2.61 · @2.20
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.10
Atletico Paranaense37%fair 2.67 · @3.10
2.67Expected goals
1.34Botafogo xG
1.33Atletico Paranaense xG
54%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Botafogo 1.3 – 1.3 Atletico Paranaense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.83.
Who will win Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense?
On our numbers Botafogo have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Atletico Paranaense 37%.
How many goals will there be in Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our predicted score is Botafogo 1–1 Atletico Paranaense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense (Serie A) kicks off on Tuesday 25 August 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Nilton Santos.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
