Value bet: Palmeiras to win @ 2.65 – our chance 41% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPalmeiras to win ✗41% · @2.65
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 8.95
Fluminense vs Palmeiras preview and prediction
The match
Fluminense host Palmeiras in the Serie A on Saturday 15 August, with kick-off at 20:30 (WAT). Fluminense are 4th with 57 points from 34 games (in the top four), while Palmeiras sit 2nd on 73 points (in the top four). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Fluminense's last 5: DDLDD Most recently they drew with Independ. Rivadavia 0–0 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Palmeiras's last 5: DDLWW Most recently they drew with Cerro Porteno 1–1 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 26 February 2026, finished Palmeiras 2–1 Fluminense.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.2 for Fluminense and 1.3 for Palmeiras. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 51%.
Value angle: Palmeiras to win at 2.65 – 41% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Fluminense 1–1 Palmeiras. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fluminense34%fair 2.96 · @2.72
Draw25%fair 3.96 · @3.10
Palmeiras41%fair 2.44 · @2.65
2.46Expected goals
1.15Fluminense xG
1.30Palmeiras xG
51%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Fluminense 1.2 – 1.3 Palmeiras expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
On our numbers Fluminense have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Palmeiras 41%.
How many goals will there be in Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
Our predicted score is Fluminense 1–1 Palmeiras, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
Fluminense vs Palmeiras (Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
