Value bet: Santos to win @ 3.50 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSao Paulo to win ✗45% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 9.70
Sao Paulo vs Santos preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Sao Paulo take on Santos on Saturday 3 October, kicking off at 00:00 (WAT) at Morumbi. Sao Paulo are 10th with 44 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Santos sit 9th on 47 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Sao Paulo's last 5: WDLLW Most recently they beat Internacional 1–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Santos's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Remo 2–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.5 for Sao Paulo and 1.2 for Santos. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sao Paulo 45%, draw 22%, Santos 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Santos to win at 3.50 – 33% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 52% chance at odds of 1.83. Predicted score: Sao Paulo 1–1 Santos. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sao Paulo45%fair 2.21 · @2.00
Draw22%fair 4.55 · @3.20
Santos33%fair 3.05 · @3.50
2.65Expected goals
1.46Sao Paulo xG
1.19Santos xG
52%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
1–27%
From our goals model: Sao Paulo 1.5 – 1.2 Santos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sao Paulo to win✗
45%
2.21
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.92
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.98
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sao Paulo / FT Sao Paulo✗
26%
3.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
9.70
–
Form
Sao Paulo – last 6
WDLLWW
20 Sep
vs Internacional
1–0
W
16 Sep
vs Boca Juniors
1–1
D
12 Sep
@ Palmeiras
0–2
L
9 Sep
@ Boca Juniors
0–1
L
5 Sep
vs Atletico-MG
2–0
W
30 Aug
vs RB Bragantino
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Santos – last 6
WLWWWD
19 Sep
@ Remo
2–1
W
16 Sep
@ Atletico-MG
2–4
L
13 Sep
vs Cruzeiro
2–1
W
9 Sep
vs Atletico-MG
2–0
W
6 Sep
@ Internacional
3–2
W
3 Sep
vs Palmeiras
0–0
D
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sao Paulo and Santos.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.83.
Who will win Sao Paulo vs Santos?
On our numbers Sao Paulo have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Santos 33%.
How many goals will there be in Sao Paulo vs Santos?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sao Paulo vs Santos?
Our predicted score is Sao Paulo 1–1 Santos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Sao Paulo vs Santos?
Sao Paulo vs Santos (Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Morumbi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
