Value bet: Gremio to win @ 3.85 – our chance 28% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMirassol to win ✓50% · @1.96
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.99
Mirassol vs Gremio preview and prediction
The match
Mirassol host Gremio in the Serie A on Saturday 18 July, with kick-off at 00:00 (WAT) at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia. Mirassol are 14th with 40 points from 34 games (in the bottom half), while Gremio sit 18th on 37 points (in the bottom three). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Mirassol's last 5: LLWWW Most recently they lost to Atletico Paranaense 0–1 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Gremio's last 5: WLDWD Most recently they beat Cruzeiro 3–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.4 for Mirassol and 1.0 for Gremio. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mirassol 50%, draw 22%, Gremio 28%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Gremio to win at 3.85 – 28% on our numbers against 26% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Mirassol 1–1 Gremio. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mirassol50%fair 2.01 · @1.96
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @3.30
Gremio28%fair 3.52 · @3.85
2.45Expected goals
1.45Mirassol xG
1.00Gremio xG
52%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
2–19%
2–09%
0–19%
0–09%
From our goals model: Mirassol 1.4 – 1.0 Gremio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mirassol to win✓
50%
2.01
1.96
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.80
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mirassol / FT Mirassol✓
28%
3.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.99
–
Form
Mirassol – last 6
LLWWWW
30 May
@ Atletico Paranaense
0–1
L
26 May
@ Lanus
0–1
L
23 May
vs Fluminense
1–0
W
20 May
@ Always Ready
2–1
W
14 May
vs RB Bragantino
2–1
W
7 May
vs LDU de Quito
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Gremio – last 6
WLDWDW
12 Jul
vs Cruzeiro
3–1
W
30 May
vs Corinthians
1–3
L
26 May
vs Atletico Torque
2–2
D
21 May
vs Palestino
2–0
W
17 May
@ Bahia
1–1
D
14 May
@ Confiança
3–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mirassol and Gremio.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Mirassol vs Gremio?
On our numbers Mirassol have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Gremio 28%.
How many goals will there be in Mirassol vs Gremio?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mirassol vs Gremio?
Our predicted score is Mirassol 1–1 Gremio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Mirassol vs Gremio?
Mirassol vs Gremio (Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 18 July 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
