Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense prediction & analysis
82%
Footrivo pick
Vasco DA Gama or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Vasco DA Gama to win @ 1.92 – our chance 59% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultVasco DA Gama to win ✓59% · @1.92
Double chanceVasco DA Gama or draw ✓82% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓13% · fair 7.61
Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense preview and prediction
The match
Atletico Paranaense travel to Estádio São Januário in the Serie A on Monday 11 May (00:30 WAT) to face Vasco DA Gama. Vasco DA Gama are 13th with 41 points from 33 games (in the bottom half), while Atletico Paranaense sit 5th on 54 points (in the top half). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Vasco DA Gama's last 5: WWWLD Most recently they beat A. Italiano 2–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Atletico Paranaense's last 5: DDLWW Most recently they drew with Gremio 0–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.7 for Vasco DA Gama and 0.8 for Atletico Paranaense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 50%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Vasco DA Gama to win at 1.92 – 59% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Vasco DA Gama or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Vasco DA Gama 1–0 Atletico Paranaense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Vasco DA Gama59%fair 1.70 · @1.92
Draw24%fair 4.24 · @3.35
Atletico Paranaense18%fair 5.67 · @3.95
2.59Expected goals
1.75Vasco DA Gama xG
0.84Atletico Paranaense xG
50%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Vasco DA Gama 1.7 – 0.8 Atletico Paranaense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vasco DA Gama to win✓
59%
1.70
1.92 ▲
Double chance
Vasco DA Gama or draw✓
82%
1.21
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
50%
2.00
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.41
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Half-time result
Vasco DA Gama ahead at half-time✓
42%
2.39
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vasco DA Gama / FT Vasco DA Gama✓
37%
2.73
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
13%
7.61
–
Form
Vasco DA Gama – last 6
WWWLDL
6 May
@ A. Italiano
2–1
W
30 Apr
vs Olimpia
3–0
W
22 Apr
@ Paysandu
2–0
W
15 Apr
vs A. Italiano
1–2
L
7 Apr
@ Barracas Central
0–0
D
5 Apr
vs Botafogo
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Atletico Paranaense – last 6
DDLWWL
3 May
vs Gremio
0–0
D
24 Apr
vs Atletico Goianiense
0–0
D
2 Apr
@ Bahia
0–3
L
29 Mar
vs Botafogo
4–1
W
18 Mar
vs Cruzeiro
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Fluminense
2–3
L
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vasco DA Gama and Atletico Paranaense.
What is the prediction for Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our pick is Vasco DA Gama or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense?
On our numbers Vasco DA Gama have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Atletico Paranaense 18%.
How many goals will there be in Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our predicted score is Vasco DA Gama 1–0 Atletico Paranaense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense?
Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense (Serie A) kicks off on Monday 11 May 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio São Januário.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
