Good pick · fair odds 1.63 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.75Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultPalmeiras to win ✓62% · @1.44
Double chanceEither team to win ✓82% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10% · fair 10.07
Palmeiras vs Gremio preview and prediction
The match
Gremio travel to Arena Barueri in the Serie A on Friday 3 April (01:30 WAT) to face Palmeiras. Palmeiras are 2nd with 73 points from 34 games (in the top four), while Gremio sit 18th on 37 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 36 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Palmeiras's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Sao Paulo 1–0 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Gremio's last 5: WDDWD Most recently they beat Vitoria 2–0 at home. They average 1.4 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Palmeiras arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.1 for Palmeiras and 1.0 for Gremio. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 61% and both teams to score at 61%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Palmeiras 62%, draw 18%, Gremio 19%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.75.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 61% chance at odds of 1.75, above our fair price of 1.63, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Palmeiras 2–1 Gremio. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Palmeiras62%fair 1.60 · @1.44
Draw18%fair 5.51 · @4.20
Gremio19%fair 5.15 · @6.00
3.13Expected goals
2.08Palmeiras xG
1.05Gremio xG
61%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
1–110%
2–09%
1–09%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: Palmeiras 2.1 – 1.0 Gremio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Palmeiras to win✓
62%
1.60
1.44
Double chance
Either team to win✓
82%
1.22
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.63
1.75 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
–
Half-time result
Palmeiras ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Palmeiras / FT Palmeiras✓
39%
2.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
10%
10.07
–
Form
Palmeiras – last 6
WWLWWW
22 Mar
@ Sao Paulo
1–0
W
18 Mar
vs Botafogo
2–1
W
12 Mar
@ Vasco DA Gama
1–2
L
9 Mar
@ Novorizontino
2–1
W
5 Mar
vs Novorizontino
1–0
W
2 Mar
vs Sao Paulo
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Gremio – last 5
WDDWD
19 Mar
vs Vitoria
2–0
W
17 Mar
@ Chapecoense-sc
1–1
D
13 Mar
vs RB Bragantino
1–1
D
26 Feb
vs Atletico-MG
2–1
W
15 Feb
vs Juventude
1–1
D
1.4Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
80%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Palmeiras and Gremio.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Palmeiras vs Gremio?
On our numbers Palmeiras have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Gremio 19%.
How many goals will there be in Palmeiras vs Gremio?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Palmeiras vs Gremio?
Our predicted score is Palmeiras 2–1 Gremio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Palmeiras vs Gremio?
Palmeiras vs Gremio (Serie A) kicks off on Friday 3 April 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Barueri.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
