Value bet: Chapecoense-sc to win @ 3.40 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCorinthians to win ✗45% · @2.18
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.24
Chapecoense-sc vs Corinthians preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Chapecoense-sc take on Corinthians on Friday 20 March, kicking off at 01:30 (WAT) at Arena Condá. Chapecoense-sc are 20th with 21 points from 33 games (in the bottom three), while Corinthians sit 17th on 37 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Chapecoense-sc's last 3: DLW Most recently they drew with Gremio 1–1 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Corinthians's last 5: DLLDW Most recently they drew with Santos 1–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 5. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.1 for Chapecoense-sc and 1.4 for Corinthians. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 53%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Chapecoense-sc to win at 3.40 – 32% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Chapecoense-sc 1–1 Corinthians. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Chapecoense-sc32%fair 3.11 · @3.40
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.15
Corinthians45%fair 2.20 · @2.18
2.56Expected goals
1.14Chapecoense-sc xG
1.42Corinthians xG
53%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–29%
1–09%
0–28%
0–08%
From our goals model: Chapecoense-sc 1.1 – 1.4 Corinthians expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Corinthians to win✗
45%
2.20
2.18
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Corinthians / FT Corinthians✗
26%
3.91
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.24
–
Form
Chapecoense-sc – last 3
DLW
17 Mar
vs Gremio
1–1
D
13 Mar
@ Sao Paulo
0–2
L
22 Feb
vs Brusque
3–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Corinthians – last 6
DLLDWW
15 Mar
@ Santos
1–1
D
12 Mar
vs Coritiba
0–2
L
1 Mar
@ Novorizontino
0–1
L
26 Feb
@ Cruzeiro
1–1
D
19 Feb
@ Atletico Paranaense
1–0
W
16 Feb
@ São Bernardo
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chapecoense-sc and Corinthians.
What is the prediction for Chapecoense-sc vs Corinthians?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Chapecoense-sc vs Corinthians?
On our numbers Chapecoense-sc have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Corinthians 45%.
How many goals will there be in Chapecoense-sc vs Corinthians?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chapecoense-sc vs Corinthians?
Our predicted score is Chapecoense-sc 1–1 Corinthians, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Chapecoense-sc vs Corinthians?
Chapecoense-sc vs Corinthians (Serie A) kicks off on Friday 20 March 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Condá.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
