Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Cruzeiro to win @ 1.80 – our chance 59% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCruzeiro to win ✗59% · @1.80
Double chanceCruzeiro or draw ✓83% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.08
Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama preview and prediction
The match
Cruzeiro host Vasco DA Gama in the Serie A on Monday 16 March, with kick-off at 00:30 (WAT) at Governador Magalhães Pinto. Cruzeiro are 3rd with 60 points from 34 games (in the top four), while Vasco DA Gama sit 13th on 41 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 19 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Cruzeiro's last 3: LDW Most recently they lost to Flamengo 0–2 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Vasco DA Gama's last 3: WLL Most recently they beat Palmeiras 2–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.0 for Cruzeiro and 1.1 for Vasco DA Gama. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score in 58% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cruzeiro 59%, draw 24%, Vasco DA Gama 17%.
Safer route: Cruzeiro or draw (83%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Cruzeiro to win at 1.80 – 59% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Cruzeiro or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Cruzeiro 2–1 Vasco DA Gama. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cruzeiro59%fair 1.69 · @1.80
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @3.50
Vasco DA Gama17%fair 5.86 · @3.90
3.11Expected goals
2.03Cruzeiro xG
1.08Vasco DA Gama xG
58%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
1–110%
2–09%
1–09%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Cruzeiro 2.0 – 1.1 Vasco DA Gama expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Cruzeiro
Vasco DA Gama
Attack vs Serie A average
+36%
+8%
Goals conceded vs average
-1%
+6%
Our expected goals here
2.19
1.23
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cruzeiro to win✗
59%
1.69
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Cruzeiro or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.71
1.80 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
–
Half-time result
Cruzeiro ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cruzeiro / FT Cruzeiro✗
38%
2.66
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.08
–
Form
Cruzeiro – last 3
LDW
12 Mar
@ Flamengo
0–2
L
26 Feb
vs Corinthians
1–1
D
14 Feb
@ Uniao Trabalhadores
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Vasco DA Gama – last 3
WLL
12 Mar
vs Palmeiras
2–1
W
26 Feb
@ Santos
1–2
L
22 Feb
vs Fluminense
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cruzeiro and Vasco DA Gama.
What is the prediction for Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our pick is Cruzeiro or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama?
On our numbers Cruzeiro have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Vasco DA Gama 17%.
How many goals will there be in Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our predicted score is Cruzeiro 2–1 Vasco DA Gama, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama?
Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama (Serie A) kicks off on Monday 16 March 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Governador Magalhães Pinto.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
