Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Mirassol to win @ 1.78 – our chance 66% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMirassol to win ✗66% · @1.78
Double chanceMirassol or draw ✓86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.77
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 9.37
Mirassol vs Santos preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Mirassol take on Santos on Wednesday 11 March, kicking off at 01:30 (WAT) at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia. Mirassol are 14th with 40 points from 34 games (in the bottom half), while Santos sit 9th on 47 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Santos's last 3: WLW Most recently they beat Vasco DA Gama 2–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 3.3 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.2 for Mirassol and 0.9 for Santos. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 55% and both teams to score at 56%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mirassol 66%, draw 20%, Santos 14%.
Safer route: Mirassol or draw (86%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.77.
Value angle: Mirassol to win at 1.78 – 66% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Mirassol or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Mirassol 2–0 Santos. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mirassol66%fair 1.52 · @1.78
Draw20%fair 5.05 · @3.60
Santos14%fair 6.96 · @4.35
3.11Expected goals
2.19Mirassol xG
0.92Santos xG
56%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
2–110%
1–010%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Mirassol 2.2 – 0.9 Santos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mirassol to win✗
66%
1.52
1.78 ▲
Double chance
Mirassol or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.80
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
67%
1.50
1.33
Half-time result
Mirassol ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mirassol / FT Mirassol✗
43%
2.32
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
9.37
–
Form
Mirassol – last 1
L
16 Feb
vs Portuguesa
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Santos – last 3
WLW
26 Feb
vs Vasco DA Gama
2–1
W
22 Feb
@ Novorizontino
1–2
L
16 Feb
vs Velo Clube
7–0
W
3.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mirassol and Santos.
Our pick is Mirassol or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Mirassol vs Santos?
On our numbers Mirassol have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Santos 14%.
How many goals will there be in Mirassol vs Santos?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mirassol vs Santos?
Our predicted score is Mirassol 2–0 Santos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Mirassol vs Santos?
Mirassol vs Santos (Serie A) kicks off on Wednesday 11 March 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
