Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo prediction & analysis
82%
Footrivo pick
Atletico Paranaense or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Atletico Paranaense to win @ 1.94 – our chance 59% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico Paranaense to win ✓59% · @1.94
Double chanceAtletico Paranaense or draw ✓82% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗73% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.44
Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo preview and prediction
The match
Botafogo travel to Arena da Baixada in the Serie A on Sunday 29 March (23:30 WAT) to face Atletico Paranaense. Atletico Paranaense are 5th with 54 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Botafogo sit 11th on 42 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Atletico Paranaense's last 5: WLDLL Most recently they beat Cruzeiro 2–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.4 conceded.
Botafogo's last 5: LLLDD Most recently they lost to Palmeiras 1–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.8 for Atletico Paranaense and 0.9 for Botafogo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 50%.
Safer route: Atletico Paranaense or draw (82%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Atletico Paranaense to win at 1.94 – 59% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Atletico Paranaense or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Atletico Paranaense 1–0 Botafogo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico Paranaense59%fair 1.71 · @1.94
Draw23%fair 4.31 · @3.30
Botafogo18%fair 5.50 · @4.00
2.73Expected goals
1.82Atletico Paranaense xG
0.91Botafogo xG
50%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
3–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Atletico Paranaense 1.8 – 0.9 Botafogo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Paranaense to win✓
59%
1.71
1.94 ▲
Double chance
Atletico Paranaense or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
2.00
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.93
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
1.25
Half-time result
Atletico Paranaense ahead at half-time✓
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Paranaense / FT Atletico Paranaense✓
37%
2.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.44
–
Form
Atletico Paranaense – last 5
WLDLL
18 Mar
vs Cruzeiro
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Fluminense
2–3
L
25 Feb
@ RB Bragantino
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Londrina
0–1
L
19 Feb
vs Corinthians
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
60%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Botafogo – last 6
LLLDDW
18 Mar
@ Palmeiras
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Flamengo
0–3
L
11 Mar
vs Barcelona SC
0–1
L
4 Mar
@ Barcelona SC
1–1
D
28 Feb
vs Boavista SC
0–0
D
26 Feb
vs Nacional Potosí
2–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico Paranaense and Botafogo.
What is the prediction for Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo?
Our pick is Atletico Paranaense or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo?
On our numbers Atletico Paranaense have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Botafogo 18%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo?
Our predicted score is Atletico Paranaense 1–0 Botafogo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo?
Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 29 March 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena da Baixada.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
