Value bet: Sao Paulo to win @ 2.50 – our chance 45% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSao Paulo to win ✓45% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.24
Coritiba vs Sao Paulo preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Coritiba take on Sao Paulo on Wednesday 25 February, kicking off at 23:30 (WAT) at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira. Coritiba are 12th with 42 points from 34 games (in the bottom half), while Sao Paulo sit 10th on 44 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.2 for Coritiba and 1.4 for Sao Paulo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Coritiba 32%, draw 23%, Sao Paulo 45%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Sao Paulo to win at 2.50 – 45% on our numbers against 40% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Coritiba 1–1 Sao Paulo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Coritiba32%fair 3.13 · @2.92
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.05
Sao Paulo45%fair 2.24 · @2.50
2.59Expected goals
1.16Coritiba xG
1.43Sao Paulo xG
52%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–09%
0–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Coritiba 1.2 – 1.4 Sao Paulo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sao Paulo to win✓
45%
2.24
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.92
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sao Paulo / FT Sao Paulo✗
25%
3.94
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.24
–
Form
Coritiba
No recent results on record.
Sao Paulo – last 1
W
16 Feb
@ Ponte Preta
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Coritiba and Sao Paulo.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Coritiba vs Sao Paulo?
On our numbers Coritiba have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Sao Paulo 45%.
How many goals will there be in Coritiba vs Sao Paulo?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Coritiba vs Sao Paulo?
Our predicted score is Coritiba 1–1 Sao Paulo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Coritiba vs Sao Paulo?
Coritiba vs Sao Paulo (Serie A) kicks off on Wednesday 25 February 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
