Velez Sarsfield vs Union Santa Fe prediction & analysis
63%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 54% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultVelez Sarsfield to win ✗46% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗82% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.04
Velez Sarsfield vs Union Santa Fe preview and prediction
The match
Velez Sarsfield host Union Santa Fe in the Liga Profesional Argentina on Monday 27 April, with kick-off at 22:45 (WAT) at Jose Amalfitani. Velez Sarsfield are 6th with 56 points from 32 games (in the top half), while Union Santa Fe sit 16th on 42 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Velez Sarsfield's last 5: DWWLD Most recently they drew with San Lorenzo 0–0 away. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Union Santa Fe's last 5: LWDDW Most recently they lost to Newells Old Boys 2–3 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.3 for Velez Sarsfield and 0.9 for Union Santa Fe. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Velez Sarsfield 46%, draw 24%, Union Santa Fe 30%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 2.10.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.10 – 54% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 63% chance at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Velez Sarsfield 1–1 Union Santa Fe. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Velez Sarsfield46%fair 2.15 · @2.20
Draw24%fair 4.24 · @3.00
Union Santa Fe30%fair 3.34 · @3.50
2.18Expected goals
1.25Velez Sarsfield xG
0.92Union Santa Fe xG
54%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–011%
0–110%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Velez Sarsfield 1.3 – 0.9 Union Santa Fe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Velez Sarsfield to win✗
46%
2.15
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
1.53
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
63%
1.58
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
82%
1.22
1.15
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Velez Sarsfield / FT Velez Sarsfield✗
25%
3.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.04
–
Form
Velez Sarsfield – last 6
DWWLDW
20 Apr
@ San Lorenzo
0–0
D
14 Apr
vs Central Cordoba de Santiago
1–0
W
7 Apr
vs Deportivo Armenio
4–1
W
3 Apr
@ Gimnasia M.
2–3
L
10 Mar
@ Tigre
1–1
D
2 Mar
@ Estudiantes L.P.
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Union Santa Fe – last 6
LWDDWW
18 Apr
vs Newells Old Boys
2–3
L
31 Mar
vs Agropecuario
2–0
W
16 Mar
vs Boca Juniors
1–1
D
10 Mar
@ Independiente
4–4
D
1 Mar
@ Instituto Cordoba
2–1
W
26 Feb
@ Sarmiento Junin
3–1
W
2.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Velez Sarsfield and Union Santa Fe.
What is the prediction for Velez Sarsfield vs Union Santa Fe?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Velez Sarsfield vs Union Santa Fe?
On our numbers Velez Sarsfield have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Union Santa Fe 30%.
How many goals will there be in Velez Sarsfield vs Union Santa Fe?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Velez Sarsfield vs Union Santa Fe?
Our predicted score is Velez Sarsfield 1–1 Union Santa Fe, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Velez Sarsfield vs Union Santa Fe?
Velez Sarsfield vs Union Santa Fe (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Monday 27 April 2026 at 22:45 (West Africa Time) at Jose Amalfitani.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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