Value bet: Sarmiento Junin to win @ 2.20 – our chance 50% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultSarmiento Junin to win50% · @2.20
Double chanceSarmiento Junin or draw75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score54% · @1.53
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals71% · @1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–019% · fair 5.20
Sarmiento Junin vs Aldosivi preview and prediction
The match
Aldosivi travel to Estadio Eva Peron in the Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday 22 March (19:30 WAT) to face Sarmiento Junin. Sarmiento Junin are 19th with 40 points from 32 games (in the bottom half), while Aldosivi sit 29th on 19 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 21 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Sarmiento Junin's last 5: LDWLL Most recently they lost to River Plate 0–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Aldosivi's last 5: DDLLW Most recently they drew with Huracan 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.7 goals: 1.1 for Sarmiento Junin and 0.6 for Aldosivi. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 71% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Safer route: Sarmiento Junin or draw (75%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: no (54%) at 1.53.
Value angle: Sarmiento Junin to win at 2.20 – 50% on our numbers against 45% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Sarmiento Junin or draw – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Sarmiento Junin 1–0 Aldosivi. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sarmiento Junin50%fair 1.99 · @2.20
Draw25%fair 4.02 · @2.85
Aldosivi25%fair 4.02 · @3.80
1.75Expected goals
1.11Sarmiento Junin xG
0.64Aldosivi xG
46%Both score
29%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
0–017%
1–112%
0–111%
2–011%
2–17%
From our goals model: Sarmiento Junin 1.1 – 0.6 Aldosivi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sarmiento Junin to win
50%
1.99
2.20 ▲
Double chance
Sarmiento Junin or draw
75%
1.33
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
54%
1.85
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
55%
1.83
1.65
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
71%
1.40
1.38
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
87%
1.14
1.11
Half-time result
Level at half-time
53%
1.89
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sarmiento Junin / FT Sarmiento Junin
26%
3.78
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
19%
5.20
–
Form
Sarmiento Junin – last 6
LDWLLL
15 Mar
@ River Plate
0–2
L
11 Mar
vs Racing Club
0–0
D
3 Mar
vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
1–0
W
26 Feb
vs Union Santa Fe
1–3
L
20 Feb
@ Estudiantes L.P.
0–1
L
14 Feb
@ Huracan
0–1
L
0.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Aldosivi – last 5
DDLLW
16 Mar
vs Huracan
0–0
D
12 Mar
@ Atletico Tucuman
1–1
D
3 Mar
@ Banfield
0–2
L
23 Feb
@ Union Santa Fe
0–1
L
17 Feb
vs San Miguel
3–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
20%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sarmiento Junin and Aldosivi.
What is the prediction for Sarmiento Junin vs Aldosivi?
Our pick is Sarmiento Junin or draw with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Sarmiento Junin vs Aldosivi?
On our numbers Sarmiento Junin have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Aldosivi 25%.
How many goals will there be in Sarmiento Junin vs Aldosivi?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 29% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sarmiento Junin vs Aldosivi?
Our predicted score is Sarmiento Junin 1–0 Aldosivi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Sarmiento Junin vs Aldosivi?
Sarmiento Junin vs Aldosivi (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Eva Peron.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Independiente1
Talleres Cordoba2