Value bet: San Lorenzo to win @ 3.50 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDeportivo Riestra to win ✗40% · @2.46
Double chanceEither team to win ✗72% · @1.40
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗58% · @1.42
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓76% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.78
Deportivo Riestra vs San Lorenzo preview and prediction
The match
Deportivo Riestra host San Lorenzo in the Liga Profesional Argentina on Wednesday 25 March, with kick-off at 23:00 (WAT) at Estadio Guillermo Laza. Deportivo Riestra are 28th with 23 points from 32 games (in the bottom three), while San Lorenzo sit 18th on 41 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 18 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Deportivo Riestra's last 5: LDDDD Most recently they lost to Central Cordoba de Santiago 0–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.2 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
San Lorenzo's last 5: WLDDD Most recently they beat Deportivo Rincon 5–0 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
San Lorenzo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.6 goals: 0.9 for Deportivo Riestra and 0.7 for San Lorenzo. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 76% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Deportivo Riestra 40%, draw 28%, San Lorenzo 33%.
Both teams to score: no (58%) at 1.42.
Value angle: San Lorenzo to win at 3.50 – 33% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Deportivo Riestra 0–0 San Lorenzo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Deportivo Riestra40%fair 2.53 · @2.46
Draw28%fair 3.60 · @2.66
San Lorenzo33%fair 3.06 · @3.50
1.61Expected goals
0.86Deportivo Riestra xG
0.74San Lorenzo xG
42%Both score
24%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–020%
1–017%
0–115%
1–113%
2–07%
2–16%
From our goals model: Deportivo Riestra 0.9 – 0.7 San Lorenzo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportivo Riestra to win✗
40%
2.53
2.46
Double chance
Either team to win✗
72%
1.38
1.40
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
58%
1.74
1.42
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✗
51%
1.98
1.93
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.28
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
1.07
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
56%
1.80
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
27%
3.65
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.78
–
Form
Deportivo Riestra – last 6
LDDDDD
18 Mar
@ Central Cordoba de Santiago
0–1
L
12 Mar
vs Gimnasia M.
0–0
D
2 Mar
vs Platense
0–0
D
25 Feb
@ Velez Sarsfield
0–0
D
21 Feb
vs Huracan
0–0
D
16 Feb
vs Newells Old Boys
1–1
D
0.2Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
San Lorenzo – last 6
WLDDDW
21 Mar
vs Deportivo Rincon
5–0
W
16 Mar
vs Defensa Y Justicia
2–5
L
11 Mar
@ Boca Juniors
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ Talleres Cordoba
0–0
D
24 Feb
vs Instituto Cordoba
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportivo Riestra and San Lorenzo.
What is the prediction for Deportivo Riestra vs San Lorenzo?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Deportivo Riestra vs San Lorenzo?
On our numbers Deportivo Riestra have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 28% and San Lorenzo 33%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Riestra vs San Lorenzo?
We expect about 1.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 24% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo Riestra vs San Lorenzo?
Our predicted score is Deportivo Riestra 0–0 San Lorenzo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.6 goals in total.
When is Deportivo Riestra vs San Lorenzo?
Deportivo Riestra vs San Lorenzo (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Wednesday 25 March 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Guillermo Laza.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
