Independiente vs Union Santa Fe prediction & analysis
65%
Footrivo pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 51% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultIndependiente to win ✗46% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.25
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗84% · @1.13
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.60
Independiente vs Union Santa Fe preview and prediction
The match
Union Santa Fe travel to Libertadores de America in the Liga Profesional Argentina on Tuesday 10 March (23:45 WAT) to face Independiente. Independiente are 13th with 47 points from 32 games (in the top half), while Union Santa Fe sit 16th on 42 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Union Santa Fe's last 4: WWWD Most recently they beat Instituto Cordoba 2–1 away. They average 1.5 scored and 0.5 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.2 for Independiente and 0.9 for Union Santa Fe. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Independiente 46%, draw 23%, Union Santa Fe 31%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.25.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.25 – 51% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Independiente 1–0 Union Santa Fe. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Independiente46%fair 2.16 · @2.15
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @3.10
Union Santa Fe31%fair 3.22 · @3.55
2.10Expected goals
1.20Independiente xG
0.90Union Santa Fe xG
51%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
1–113%
0–012%
0–111%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Independiente 1.2 – 0.9 Union Santa Fe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente to win✗
46%
2.16
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
2.25 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
1.57
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
65%
1.53
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
84%
1.19
1.13
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente / FT Independiente✗
25%
4.08
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.60
–
Form
Independiente – last 2
WD
1 Mar
vs Central Cordoba de Santiago
2–0
W
25 Feb
@ Gimnasia M.
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Union Santa Fe – last 4
WWWD
1 Mar
@ Instituto Cordoba
2–1
W
26 Feb
@ Sarmiento Junin
3–1
W
23 Feb
vs Aldosivi
1–0
W
14 Feb
vs San Lorenzo
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independiente and Union Santa Fe.
What is the prediction for Independiente vs Union Santa Fe?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Independiente vs Union Santa Fe?
On our numbers Independiente have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Union Santa Fe 31%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente vs Union Santa Fe?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente vs Union Santa Fe?
Our predicted score is Independiente 1–0 Union Santa Fe, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Independiente vs Union Santa Fe?
Independiente vs Union Santa Fe (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Tuesday 10 March 2026 at 23:45 (West Africa Time) at Libertadores de America.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Tigre1