Value bet: Gimnasia M. to win @ 4.00 – our chance 33% vs 25% implied by the price (edge +33%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDeportivo Riestra to win ✗35% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✗68% · @1.38
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · @1.45
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓74% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 6.90
Deportivo Riestra vs Gimnasia M. preview and prediction
The match
Deportivo Riestra host Gimnasia M. in the Liga Profesional Argentina on Thursday 12 March, with kick-off at 21:00 (WAT) at Estadio Guillermo Laza. Deportivo Riestra are 28th with 23 points from 32 games (in the bottom three), while Gimnasia M. sit 17th on 41 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 18 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Deportivo Riestra's last 4: DDDD Most recently they drew with Platense 0–0 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Gimnasia M.'s last 3: DLL Most recently they drew with Independiente 1–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Deportivo Riestra arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.7 goals: 0.8 for Deportivo Riestra and 0.9 for Gimnasia M.. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 74% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Deportivo Riestra 35%, draw 32%, Gimnasia M. 33%.
Both teams to score: no (54%) at 1.45.
Value angle: Gimnasia M. to win at 4.00 – 33% on our numbers against 25% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Deportivo Riestra 0–0 Gimnasia M.. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Deportivo Riestra35%fair 2.85 · @2.20
Draw32%fair 3.16 · @2.74
Gimnasia M.33%fair 3.01 · @4.00
1.69Expected goals
0.79Deportivo Riestra xG
0.90Gimnasia M. xG
46%Both score
26%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–018%
0–117%
1–014%
1–113%
0–28%
1–26%
From our goals model: Deportivo Riestra 0.8 – 0.9 Gimnasia M. expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportivo Riestra to win✗
35%
2.85
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✗
68%
1.46
1.38
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
1.45
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
52%
1.94
1.80
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.30
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
1.08
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
54%
1.84
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
26%
3.84
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
6.90
–
Form
Deportivo Riestra – last 4
DDDD
2 Mar
vs Platense
0–0
D
25 Feb
@ Velez Sarsfield
0–0
D
21 Feb
vs Huracan
0–0
D
16 Feb
vs Newells Old Boys
1–1
D
0.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
25%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Gimnasia M. – last 3
DLL
25 Feb
vs Independiente
1–1
D
21 Feb
vs Gimnasia L.P.
0–1
L
14 Feb
@ Talleres Cordoba
1–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportivo Riestra and Gimnasia M..
What is the prediction for Deportivo Riestra vs Gimnasia M.?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Deportivo Riestra vs Gimnasia M.?
On our numbers Deportivo Riestra have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 32% and Gimnasia M. 33%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Riestra vs Gimnasia M.?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 26% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo Riestra vs Gimnasia M.?
Our predicted score is Deportivo Riestra 0–0 Gimnasia M., the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Deportivo Riestra vs Gimnasia M.?
Deportivo Riestra vs Gimnasia M. (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Thursday 12 March 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Guillermo Laza.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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