Value bet: FC Midtjylland to win @ 1.89 – our chance 65% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFC Midtjylland to win ✗65% · @1.89
Double chanceEither team to win ✗85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.25
FC Midtjylland vs Aarhus preview and prediction
The match
The DBU Pokalen sees FC Midtjylland take on Aarhus on Sunday 8 March, kicking off at 18:00 (WAT) at MCH Arena.
Form guide
FC Midtjylland's last 3: DWW Most recently they drew with Brondby 0–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.7 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Aarhus's last 3: WWD Most recently they beat Vejle 2–1 away. They are scoring freely – 2.7 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.0 for FC Midtjylland and 0.9 for Aarhus. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 60%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: FC Midtjylland 65%, draw 15%, Aarhus 21%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.60.
Value angle: FC Midtjylland to win at 1.89 – 65% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: FC Midtjylland 2–0 Aarhus. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FC Midtjylland65%fair 1.55 · @1.89
Draw15%fair 6.88 · @3.70
Aarhus21%fair 4.79 · @3.65
2.90Expected goals
1.96FC Midtjylland xG
0.94Aarhus xG
60%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–011%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%
From our goals model: FC Midtjylland 2.0 – 0.9 Aarhus expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FC Midtjylland to win✗
65%
1.55
1.89 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
85%
1.17
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.66
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.44
Half-time result
FC Midtjylland ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FC Midtjylland / FT FC Midtjylland✗
39%
2.57
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.25
–
Form
FC Midtjylland – last 3
DWW
1 Mar
vs Brondby
0–0
D
22 Feb
@ Silkeborg
4–0
W
15 Feb
@ Odense
4–1
W
2.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Aarhus – last 3
WWD
1 Mar
@ Vejle
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs Viborg
5–2
W
15 Feb
@ FC Fredericia
1–1
D
2.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FC Midtjylland and Aarhus.
What is the prediction for FC Midtjylland vs Aarhus?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win FC Midtjylland vs Aarhus?
On our numbers FC Midtjylland have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Aarhus 21%.
How many goals will there be in FC Midtjylland vs Aarhus?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC Midtjylland vs Aarhus?
Our predicted score is FC Midtjylland 2–0 Aarhus, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is FC Midtjylland vs Aarhus?
FC Midtjylland vs Aarhus (DBU Pokalen) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at MCH Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
