Value bet: Louisville City to win @ 2.20 – our chance 50% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLouisville City to win ✓50% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓9% · fair 10.95
Lexington vs Louisville City preview and prediction
The match
Lexington host Louisville City in the USL Championship on Saturday 7 March, with kick-off at 01:30 (WAT) at Toyota Stadium. Lexington are 4th with 48 points from 30 games (in the top four), while Louisville City sit 4th on 47 points (in the top four). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.0 for Lexington and 1.5 for Louisville City. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lexington 28%, draw 22%, Louisville City 50%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Louisville City to win at 2.20 – 50% on our numbers against 45% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Lexington 1–1 Louisville City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lexington28%fair 3.52 · @2.95
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @3.20
Louisville City50%fair 2.01 · @2.20
2.49Expected goals
1.02Lexington xG
1.47Louisville City xG
57%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–112%
1–29%
0–29%
1–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Lexington 1.0 – 1.5 Louisville City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Louisville City to win✓
50%
2.01
2.20 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.83
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Louisville City / FT Louisville City✗
28%
3.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
9%
10.95
–
Form
Lexington
No recent results on record.
Louisville City – last 1
W
22 Feb
@ FC Cincinnati
4–0
W
4.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lexington and Louisville City.
What is the prediction for Lexington vs Louisville City?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Lexington vs Louisville City?
On our numbers Lexington have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Louisville City 50%.
How many goals will there be in Lexington vs Louisville City?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lexington vs Louisville City?
Our predicted score is Lexington 1–1 Louisville City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Lexington vs Louisville City?
Lexington vs Louisville City (USL Championship) kicks off on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Toyota Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
