Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Aarau prediction & analysis
64%
Footrivo pick
FC Aarau to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.60 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.60Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultFC Aarau to win ✓64% · @1.60
Double chanceFC Aarau or draw ✓85% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.42
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.20
Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Aarau preview and prediction
The match
Neuchatel Xamax FC host FC Aarau in the Challenge League on Friday 1 May, with kick-off at 19:15 (WAT). Neuchatel Xamax FC are 5th with 17 points from 13 games (in the top half), while FC Aarau sit 6th on 15 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Neuchatel Xamax FC's last 5: DWLLW Most recently they drew with Yverdon Sport 2–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
FC Aarau's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
FC Aarau arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 1.0 for Neuchatel Xamax FC and 2.3 for FC Aarau. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 65% and both teams to score at 61%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Neuchatel Xamax FC 15%, draw 20%, FC Aarau 64%.
Safer route: FC Aarau or draw (85%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.42.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was FC Aarau to win – a 64% chance at odds of 1.60, above our fair price of 1.55, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Neuchatel Xamax FC 1–2 FC Aarau. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Neuchatel Xamax FC15%fair 6.61 · @4.50
Draw20%fair 4.89 · @4.00
FC Aarau64%fair 1.55 · @1.60
3.28Expected goals
1.02Neuchatel Xamax FC xG
2.26FC Aarau xG
61%Both score
65%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–210%
0–210%
1–19%
0–18%
1–37%
0–37%
From our goals model: Neuchatel Xamax FC 1.0 – 2.3 FC Aarau expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FC Aarau to win✓
64%
1.55
1.60
Double chance
FC Aarau or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.63
1.42
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.42
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
1.73
Half-time result
FC Aarau ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FC Aarau / FT FC Aarau✓
43%
2.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.20
–
Form
Neuchatel Xamax FC – last 6
DWLLWD
22 Apr
@ Yverdon Sport
2–2
D
10 Apr
vs Stade Nyonnais
4–1
W
7 Apr
@ FC WIL 1900
2–5
L
3 Apr
vs FC Vaduz
1–3
L
15 Mar
vs Rapperswil
3–2
W
6 Mar
@ Stade Nyonnais
0–0
D
2.0Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
FC Aarau – last 6
WLWWWD
22 Apr
vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
3–0
W
7 Apr
vs Étoile Carouge
1–3
L
13 Mar
vs FC Vaduz
2–0
W
6 Mar
@ Étoile Carouge
3–0
W
27 Feb
vs Rapperswil
5–3
W
20 Feb
@ Stade Nyonnais
1–1
D
2.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Neuchatel Xamax FC and FC Aarau.
What is the prediction for Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Aarau?
Our pick is FC Aarau to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Aarau?
On our numbers Neuchatel Xamax FC have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 20% and FC Aarau 64%.
How many goals will there be in Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Aarau?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Aarau?
Our predicted score is Neuchatel Xamax FC 1–2 FC Aarau, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Aarau?
Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Aarau (Challenge League) kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 19:15 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
