Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: FC Aarau to win @ 1.80 – our chance 61% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFC Aarau to win ✓61% · @1.80
Double chanceFC Aarau or draw ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗11% · fair 9.38
Étoile Carouge vs FC Aarau preview and prediction
The match
The Challenge League sees Étoile Carouge take on FC Aarau on Friday 6 March, kicking off at 20:15 (WAT) at Stade de la Fontenette. Étoile Carouge are 7th with 14 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while FC Aarau sit 6th on 15 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
FC Aarau's last 3: WDL Most recently they beat Rapperswil 5–3 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 0.9 for Étoile Carouge and 2.0 for FC Aarau. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 57% and both teams to score at 61%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Étoile Carouge 15%, draw 24%, FC Aarau 61%.
Safer route: FC Aarau or draw (85%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.55.
Value angle: FC Aarau to win at 1.80 – 61% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was FC Aarau or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Étoile Carouge 0–2 FC Aarau. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Étoile Carouge15%fair 6.75 · @3.70
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @3.50
FC Aarau61%fair 1.64 · @1.80
2.96Expected goals
0.93Étoile Carouge xG
2.03FC Aarau xG
61%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–211%
0–111%
1–210%
1–110%
0–37%
1–37%
From our goals model: Étoile Carouge 0.9 – 2.0 FC Aarau expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FC Aarau to win✓
61%
1.64
1.80 ▲
Double chance
FC Aarau or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.63
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Half-time result
FC Aarau ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FC Aarau / FT FC Aarau✓
40%
2.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
11%
9.38
–
Form
Étoile Carouge – last 2
DL
20 Feb
vs Yverdon Sport
2–2
D
13 Feb
vs Neuchatel Xamax FC
1–3
L
1.5Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
FC Aarau – last 3
WDL
27 Feb
vs Rapperswil
5–3
W
20 Feb
@ Stade Nyonnais
1–1
D
13 Feb
@ Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
2–4
L
2.7Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Étoile Carouge and FC Aarau.
What is the prediction for Étoile Carouge vs FC Aarau?
Our pick is FC Aarau or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Étoile Carouge vs FC Aarau?
On our numbers Étoile Carouge have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 24% and FC Aarau 61%.
How many goals will there be in Étoile Carouge vs FC Aarau?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Étoile Carouge vs FC Aarau?
Our predicted score is Étoile Carouge 0–2 FC Aarau, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Étoile Carouge vs FC Aarau?
Étoile Carouge vs FC Aarau (Challenge League) kicks off on Friday 6 March 2026 at 20:15 (West Africa Time) at Stade de la Fontenette.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
FC Vaduz0