Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze preview and prediction
The match
Gornik Zabrze travel to Stadion Poznan in the Cup on Wednesday 4 March (20:30 WAT) to face Lech Poznan.
Form guide
Lech Poznan's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Raków Częstochowa 4–3 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.4 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.7 for Lech Poznan and 1.1 for Gornik Zabrze. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 61%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lech Poznan 56%, draw 23%, Gornik Zabrze 20%.
Safer route: Lech Poznan or draw (80%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.70.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Lech Poznan 1–1 Gornik Zabrze. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lech Poznan56%fair 1.77 · @1.71
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.70
Gornik Zabrze20%fair 4.98 · @4.30
2.83Expected goals
1.74Lech Poznan xG
1.09Gornik Zabrze xG
61%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–010%
2–110%
2–09%
0–16%
1–26%
From our goals model: Lech Poznan 1.7 – 1.1 Gornik Zabrze expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lech Poznan to win✗
56%
1.77
1.71
Double chance
Lech Poznan or draw✗
80%
1.25
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.65
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.87
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.36
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.48
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lech Poznan / FT Lech Poznan✗
32%
3.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
9.70
–
Form
Lech Poznan – last 5
WWWWW
1 Mar
vs Raków Częstochowa
4–3
W
26 Feb
vs KuPS
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ Korona Kielce
2–1
W
19 Feb
@ KuPS
2–0
W
15 Feb
vs Piast Gliwice
3–0
W
2.4Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Gornik Zabrze – last 1
D
16 Feb
@ Nieciecza
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lech Poznan and Gornik Zabrze.
What is the prediction for Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze?
On our numbers Lech Poznan have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Gornik Zabrze 20%.
How many goals will there be in Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our predicted score is Lech Poznan 1–1 Gornik Zabrze, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze?
Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze (Cup) kicks off on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Poznan.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Zawisza Bydgoszcz1
Chojniczanka Chojnice1