New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City prediction & analysis
63%
Footrivo pick
St. Louis City to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.85 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.85Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultSt. Louis City to win ✓63% · @1.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✓86% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.40
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.08
New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City preview and prediction
The match
St. Louis City travel to Sports Illustrated Stadium in the Major League Soccer on Thursday 1 October (00:30 WAT) to face New York Red Bulls. New York Red Bulls are 10th with 42 points from 34 games (in the bottom half), while St. Louis City sit 3rd on 54 points (in the top four). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
New York Red Bulls's last 5: WWLDL Most recently they beat New York City FC 1–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
St. Louis City's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat Toronto FC 3–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 3.0 per game.
St. Louis City arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.1 for New York Red Bulls and 2.0 for St. Louis City. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 61% and both teams to score at 62%.
Betting angles
Win chances: New York Red Bulls 23%, draw 14%, St. Louis City 63%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.40.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was St. Louis City to win – a 63% chance at odds of 1.85, above our fair price of 1.58, so there is value in it. Predicted score: New York Red Bulls 1–2 St. Louis City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
New York Red Bulls23%fair 4.39 · @3.30
Draw14%fair 7.15 · @3.80
St. Louis City63%fair 1.58 · @1.85
3.13Expected goals
1.08New York Red Bulls xG
2.05St. Louis City xG
62%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–210%
1–110%
0–29%
0–19%
1–37%
0–36%
From our goals model: New York Red Bulls 1.1 – 2.0 St. Louis City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
St. Louis City to win✓
63%
1.58
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
86%
1.16
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.61
1.40
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
–
Half-time result
St. Louis City ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT St. Louis City / FT St. Louis City✓
38%
2.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.08
–
Form
New York Red Bulls – last 6
WWLDLD
19 Sep
@ New York City FC
1–0
W
13 Sep
@ Columbus Crew
1–0
W
10 Sep
@ Los Angeles FC
0–2
L
6 Sep
@ Seattle Sounders
0–0
D
30 Aug
vs Philadelphia Union
1–3
L
23 Aug
vs Chicago Fire
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
St. Louis City – last 6
WWWDWD
20 Sep
vs Toronto FC
3–1
W
17 Sep
@ Colorado Rapids
3–0
W
13 Sep
vs Minnesota United FC
4–2
W
10 Sep
@ Portland Timbers
2–2
D
6 Sep
@ Vancouver Whitecaps
3–1
W
31 Aug
vs FC Dallas
3–3
D
3.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between New York Red Bulls and St. Louis City.
What is the prediction for New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City?
Our pick is St. Louis City to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City?
On our numbers New York Red Bulls have a 23% chance of winning, the draw 14% and St. Louis City 63%.
How many goals will there be in New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City?
Our predicted score is New York Red Bulls 1–2 St. Louis City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City?
New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City (Major League Soccer) kicks off on Thursday 1 October 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Sports Illustrated Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
