New York City FC vs Toronto FC prediction & analysis
79%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultNew York City FC to win ✗62% · @1.63
Double chanceNew York City FC or draw ✓81% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗10% · fair 10.02
New York City FC vs Toronto FC preview and prediction
The match
Toronto FC travel to Yankee Stadium in the Major League Soccer on Saturday 1 August (00:30 WAT) to face New York City FC. New York City FC are 11th with 42 points from 34 games (in the bottom half), while Toronto FC sit 12th on 39 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
New York City FC's last 5: WWLLD Most recently they beat Chicago Fire 3–1 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Toronto FC's last 5: LDDLL Most recently they lost to DC United 1–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 5. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
New York City FC arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.0 for New York City FC and 1.0 for Toronto FC. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: New York City FC 62%, draw 19%, Toronto FC 19%.
Safer route: New York City FC or draw (81%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.70.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: New York City FC 2–0 Toronto FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
New York City FC62%fair 1.61 · @1.63
Draw19%fair 5.26 · @3.90
Toronto FC19%fair 5.30 · @5.00
3.02Expected goals
2.02New York City FC xG
1.00Toronto FC xG
60%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
2–110%
1–010%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: New York City FC 2.0 – 1.0 Toronto FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
New York City FC to win✗
62%
1.61
1.63
Double chance
New York City FC or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.67
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.76
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.53
1.42
Half-time result
New York City FC ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT New York City FC / FT New York City FC✗
39%
2.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
10%
10.02
–
Form
New York City FC – last 6
WWLLDW
26 Jul
vs Chicago Fire
3–1
W
23 Jul
@ Columbus Crew
2–1
W
24 May
@ Nashville SC
1–2
L
21 May
@ Columbus Crew
0–1
L
17 May
@ New York Red Bulls
1–1
D
14 May
@ Charlotte
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Toronto FC – last 6
LDDLLL
26 Jul
@ DC United
1–2
L
23 Jul
@ New England Revolution
0–0
D
17 Jul
@ CF Montreal
0–0
D
24 May
@ Chicago Fire
1–2
L
17 May
@ Charlotte
1–3
L
6 May
vs Atlético Ottawa
1–3
L
0.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between New York City FC and Toronto FC.
What is the prediction for New York City FC vs Toronto FC?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win New York City FC vs Toronto FC?
On our numbers New York City FC have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Toronto FC 19%.
How many goals will there be in New York City FC vs Toronto FC?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for New York City FC vs Toronto FC?
Our predicted score is New York City FC 2–0 Toronto FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is New York City FC vs Toronto FC?
New York City FC vs Toronto FC (Major League Soccer) kicks off on Saturday 1 August 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Yankee Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
