Atlanta United FC vs Philadelphia Union prediction & analysis
72%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.40 · bookmaker 1.38
7/10Rating
1.38Odds
2
Value bet: Philadelphia Union to win @ 2.40 – our chance 45% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultPhiladelphia Union to win45% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score61% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–111% · fair 9.22
Atlanta United FC vs Philadelphia Union preview and prediction
The match
Philadelphia Union travel to Mercedes-Benz Stadium in the Major League Soccer on Saturday 14 March (20:15 WAT) to face Atlanta United FC. Atlanta United FC are 13th with 33 points from 34 games (in the bottom three), while Philadelphia Union sit 6th on 50 points (in the top half). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Philadelphia Union's last 5: LLWLW Most recently they lost to Club America 0–1 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.4 goals a game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.2 for Atlanta United FC and 1.4 for Philadelphia Union. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 61%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Atlanta United FC 34%, draw 21%, Philadelphia Union 45%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Philadelphia Union to win at 2.40 – 45% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.38. Predicted score: Atlanta United FC 1–1 Philadelphia Union. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atlanta United FC34%fair 2.95 · @2.78
Draw21%fair 4.77 · @3.40
Philadelphia Union45%fair 2.21 · @2.40
2.56Expected goals
1.16Atlanta United FC xG
1.40Philadelphia Union xG
61%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–09%
1–29%
0–08%
0–28%
From our goals model: Atlanta United FC 1.2 – 1.4 Philadelphia Union expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Philadelphia Union to win
45%
2.21
2.40 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
79%
1.27
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
61%
1.63
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
74%
1.36
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
50%
1.99
2.00
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
72%
1.40
1.38
Half-time result
Level at half-time
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Philadelphia Union / FT Philadelphia Union
25%
4.03
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
11%
9.22
–
Form
Atlanta United FC – last 2
LL
8 Mar
vs Real Salt Lake
2–3
L
1 Mar
@ San Jose Earthquakes
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Philadelphia Union – last 5
LLWLW
11 Mar
vs Club America
0–1
L
8 Mar
vs San Jose Earthquakes
0–1
L
27 Feb
vs Defence Force
7–0
W
22 Feb
@ DC United
0–1
L
19 Feb
@ Defence Force
5–0
W
2.4Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
0%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atlanta United FC and Philadelphia Union.
What is the prediction for Atlanta United FC vs Philadelphia Union?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Atlanta United FC vs Philadelphia Union?
On our numbers Atlanta United FC have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Philadelphia Union 45%.
How many goals will there be in Atlanta United FC vs Philadelphia Union?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atlanta United FC vs Philadelphia Union?
Our predicted score is Atlanta United FC 1–1 Philadelphia Union, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Atlanta United FC vs Philadelphia Union?
Atlanta United FC vs Philadelphia Union (Major League Soccer) kicks off on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 20:15 (West Africa Time) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
