Scotland vs Morocco prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Value bet: Morocco to win @ 1.76 – our chance 62% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Scotland 0.5 – 1.4 Morocco expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Morocco travel as clear favourites – 62% to win, against 17% for Scotland.
Scotland have taken 9 points from their last 4 matches (3W 0D 1L), scoring 2.3 and conceding 0.5 per game. Morocco have 9 points from their last 5 (2W 3D 0L), averaging 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded.
We expect around 1.9 goals (0.5 for Scotland, 1.4 for Morocco). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely. Most likely scores: 0–1 (20%), 0–0 (15%), 0–2 (14%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 82% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.22. For a bigger price, Morocco to win at 1.76 is our value angle (62% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Morocco to win ✓ | 62% | 1.62 | 1.76 ▲ |
| Double chance | Morocco or draw ✓ | 83% | 1.20 | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 50% | 2.00 | 2.05 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 62% | 1.61 | 1.42 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 64% | 1.57 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 82% | 1.22 | 1.22 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 49% | 2.04 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Morocco / FT Morocco ✓ | 35% | 2.84 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✓ | 20% | 4.90 | – |
Form
Scotland – last 4
| 14 Jun | @ Haiti | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Jun | @ Bolivia | 4–0 | W |
| 30 May | vs Curaçao | 4–1 | W |
| 31 Mar | vs Ivory Coast | 0–1 | L |
Morocco – last 5
| 13 Jun | @ Brazil | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Jun | vs Norway | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Jun | vs Madagascar | 4–0 | W |
| 31 Mar | vs Paraguay | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Mar | vs Ecuador | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Scotland and Morocco.
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Australia0Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Scotland vs Morocco?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Scotland vs Morocco?
On our numbers Scotland have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Morocco 62%.
How many goals will there be in Scotland vs Morocco?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
When is Scotland vs Morocco?
Scotland vs Morocco (World Cup) kicks off on Friday 19 June 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Gillette Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.