Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Napoli W to win @ 1.87 – our chance 60% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNapoli W to win ✗60% · @1.87
Double chanceNapoli W or draw ✓81% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.18
Napoli W vs Parma W preview and prediction
The match
Parma W travel to Stadio Giuseppe Piccolo in the Serie A Women on Saturday 21 February (12:30 WAT) to face Napoli W. Napoli W are 9th with 5 points from 6 games (in the bottom half), while Parma W sit 10th on 5 points (in the bottom three). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.7 for Napoli W and 0.8 for Parma W. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 55%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Napoli W 60%, draw 21%, Parma W 19%.
Safer route: Napoli W or draw (81%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Napoli W to win at 1.87 – 60% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Napoli W or draw – a 81% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Napoli W 1–0 Parma W. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Napoli W60%fair 1.67 · @1.87
Draw21%fair 4.66 · @3.30
Parma W19%fair 5.33 · @3.60
2.50Expected goals
1.69Napoli W xG
0.80Parma W xG
55%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Napoli W 1.7 – 0.8 Parma W expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Napoli W to win✗
60%
1.67
1.87 ▲
Double chance
Napoli W or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.83
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
1.29
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
1.78
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Napoli W / FT Napoli W✗
36%
2.76
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.18
–
Form
Napoli W – last 1
D
15 Feb
@ Roma W
2–2
D
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Parma W – last 1
L
15 Feb
vs Inter Milano W
2–3
L
2.0Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Napoli W and Parma W.
Our pick is Napoli W or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Napoli W vs Parma W?
On our numbers Napoli W have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Parma W 19%.
How many goals will there be in Napoli W vs Parma W?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Napoli W vs Parma W?
Our predicted score is Napoli W 1–0 Parma W, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Napoli W vs Parma W?
Napoli W vs Parma W (Serie A Women) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Giuseppe Piccolo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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