Both teams scoreNot both teams to score58% · fair 1.72
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals79% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–017% · fair 5.90
AD Carmelita vs Aserri FC preview and prediction
The match
Aserri FC travel to face AD Carmelita in the Liga De Ascenso on Sunday 15 February (23:00 WAT).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.7 for AD Carmelita and 0.6 for Aserri FC. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 42%.
Betting angles
Win chances: AD Carmelita 64%, draw 24%, Aserri FC 12%.
Safer route: AD Carmelita or draw (88%) at 1.15.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was AD Carmelita to win – a 64% chance at odds of 1.80, above our fair price of 1.56, so there is value in it. Predicted score: AD Carmelita 1–0 Aserri FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
AD Carmelita64%fair 1.56 · @1.80
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.20
Aserri FC12%fair 8.62 · @4.00
2.32Expected goals
1.73AD Carmelita xG
0.60Aserri FC xG
42%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–015%
1–110%
0–010%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: AD Carmelita 1.7 – 0.6 Aserri FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AD Carmelita to win
64%
1.56
1.80 ▲
Double chance
AD Carmelita or draw
88%
1.13
1.15
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
58%
1.72
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
67%
1.48
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
57%
1.76
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
79%
1.26
–
Half-time result
AD Carmelita ahead at half-time
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AD Carmelita / FT AD Carmelita
41%
2.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
17%
5.90
–
Form
AD Carmelita
No recent results on record.
Aserri FC – last 1
D
13 Feb
vs Santa Ana
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AD Carmelita and Aserri FC.
What is the prediction for AD Carmelita vs Aserri FC?
Our pick is AD Carmelita to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win AD Carmelita vs Aserri FC?
On our numbers AD Carmelita have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Aserri FC 12%.
How many goals will there be in AD Carmelita vs Aserri FC?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AD Carmelita vs Aserri FC?
Our predicted score is AD Carmelita 1–0 Aserri FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is AD Carmelita vs Aserri FC?
AD Carmelita vs Aserri FC (Liga De Ascenso) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Deportivo Upala