Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓59% · fair 1.68
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓16% · fair 6.07
Nairobi United vs Tusker preview and prediction
The match
The FKF Premier League sees Nairobi United take on Tusker on Wednesday 6 May, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT) at Nyayo National Stadium. Nairobi United are 15th with 5 points from 6 games (in the bottom half), while Tusker sit 11th on 6 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Nairobi United's last 5: LWDWD Most recently they lost to KCB 0–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Tusker's last 5: WLWLL Most recently they beat Ulinzi Stars 2–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.3 for Nairobi United and 0.8 for Tusker. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Nairobi United 59%, draw 11%, Tusker 30%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 84% chance. Predicted score: Nairobi United 1–0 Tusker. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nairobi United59%fair 1.69
Draw11%fair 9.09
Tusker30%fair 3.33
2.09Expected goals
1.33Nairobi United xG
0.76Tusker xG
41%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
1–112%
0–012%
2–011%
0–19%
2–18%
From our goals model: Nairobi United 1.3 – 0.8 Tusker expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nairobi United to win✓
59%
1.69
–
Double chance
Either team to win✓
89%
1.12
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
59%
1.68
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nairobi United / FT Nairobi United✓
29%
3.39
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
16%
6.07
–
Form
Nairobi United – last 6
LWDWDD
3 May
vs KCB
0–1
L
19 Apr
@ Murang'a SEAL
4–2
W
8 Apr
vs Homeboyz
2–2
D
5 Apr
vs Shabana
3–0
W
1 Apr
vs Mara Sugar
1–1
D
29 Mar
@ APS Bomet
0–0
D
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Tusker – last 6
WLWLLW
3 May
@ Ulinzi Stars
2–1
W
24 Apr
vs Mara Sugar
0–1
L
14 Apr
vs GOR Mahia
1–0
W
3 Apr
@ Police
0–1
L
22 Mar
@ AFC Leopards
0–1
L
15 Mar
vs Homeboyz
2–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nairobi United and Tusker.
What is the prediction for Nairobi United vs Tusker?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 84% chance.
Who will win Nairobi United vs Tusker?
On our numbers Nairobi United have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 11% and Tusker 30%.
How many goals will there be in Nairobi United vs Tusker?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 41% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nairobi United vs Tusker?
Our predicted score is Nairobi United 1–0 Tusker, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Nairobi United vs Tusker?
Nairobi United vs Tusker (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Wednesday 6 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Nyayo National Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
