Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.40Odds
2
Value bet: Mara Sugar to win @ 3.30 – our chance 34% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultKCB to win ✓42% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓59% · fair 1.70
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓67% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓14% · fair 6.94
KCB vs Mara Sugar preview and prediction
The match
The FKF Premier League sees KCB take on Mara Sugar on Saturday 28 March, kicking off at 13:00 (WAT) at Ulinzi Sports Complex. KCB are 2nd with 13 points from 6 games (in the top four), while Mara Sugar sit 6th on 9 points (in the top half).
Form guide
KCB's last 5: DDWLD Most recently they drew with Murang'a SEAL 1–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Mara Sugar's last 5: DDWDW Most recently they drew with APS Bomet 0–0 at home. They average 1.4 scored and 0.8 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Mara Sugar arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.1 for KCB and 0.9 for Mara Sugar. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 67% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: KCB 42%, draw 24%, Mara Sugar 34%.
Value angle: Mara Sugar to win at 3.30 – 34% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 67% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: KCB 1–0 Mara Sugar. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
KCB42%fair 2.36 · @2.20
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @2.88
Mara Sugar34%fair 2.94 · @3.30
2.03Expected goals
1.09KCB xG
0.93Mara Sugar xG
41%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–013%
0–112%
2–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: KCB 1.1 – 0.9 Mara Sugar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
KCB to win✓
42%
2.36
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.33
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
59%
1.70
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
2.02
–
Half-time / full-time
HT KCB / FT KCB✗
22%
4.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
14%
6.94
–
Form
KCB – last 5
DDWLD
15 Mar
vs Murang'a SEAL
1–1
D
4 Mar
@ Nairobi United
1–1
D
26 Feb
vs AFC Leopards
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ GOR Mahia
0–3
L
15 Feb
vs Kariobangi Sharks
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
60%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Mara Sugar – last 5
DDWDW
21 Mar
vs APS Bomet
0–0
D
14 Mar
@ Bandari
0–0
D
2 Mar
vs Sofapaka
3–1
W
26 Feb
@ Bidco United
2–2
D
22 Feb
vs Ulinzi Stars
2–1
W
1.4Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between KCB and Mara Sugar.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win KCB vs Mara Sugar?
On our numbers KCB have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Mara Sugar 34%.
How many goals will there be in KCB vs Mara Sugar?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 41% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for KCB vs Mara Sugar?
Our predicted score is KCB 1–0 Mara Sugar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is KCB vs Mara Sugar?
KCB vs Mara Sugar (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 28 March 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Ulinzi Sports Complex.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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