Value bet: Tusker to win @ 2.70 – our chance 42% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultTusker to win42% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win74% · @1.40
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score55% · @1.55
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–117% · fair 5.86
Mathare United vs Tusker preview and prediction
The match
Tusker travel to Moi International Sports Centre in the FKF Premier League on Saturday 14 February (14:00 WAT) to face Mathare United. Mathare United are 16th with 5 points from 6 games (in the bottom three), while Tusker sit 11th on 6 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.7 goals: 0.8 for Mathare United and 0.9 for Tusker. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 75% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mathare United 32%, draw 26%, Tusker 42%.
Both teams to score: no (55%) at 1.55.
Value angle: Tusker to win at 2.70 – 42% on our numbers against 37% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 55% chance at odds of 1.55. Predicted score: Mathare United 0–0 Tusker. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mathare United32%fair 3.11 · @2.70
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @2.50
Tusker42%fair 2.38 · @2.70
1.71Expected goals
0.77Mathare United xG
0.94Tusker xG
45%Both score
25%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–018%
0–117%
1–014%
1–113%
0–28%
1–26%
From our goals model: Mathare United 0.8 – 0.9 Tusker expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tusker to win
42%
2.38
2.70 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
74%
1.35
1.40
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
55%
1.82
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
51%
1.96
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
91%
1.10
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
54%
1.85
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw
26%
3.89
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
17%
5.86
–
Form
Mathare United
No recent results on record.
Tusker
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mathare United and Tusker.
What is the prediction for Mathare United vs Tusker?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Mathare United vs Tusker?
On our numbers Mathare United have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Tusker 42%.
How many goals will there be in Mathare United vs Tusker?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 25% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mathare United vs Tusker?
Our predicted score is Mathare United 0–0 Tusker, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Mathare United vs Tusker?
Mathare United vs Tusker (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Moi International Sports Centre.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
