Melbourne City vs Adelaide United prediction & analysis
79%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Adelaide United to win @ 3.30 – our chance 36% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMelbourne City to win ✗44% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓81% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.25
Melbourne City vs Adelaide United preview and prediction
The match
The A League sees Melbourne City take on Adelaide United on Sunday 26 April, kicking off at 08:30 (WAT) at AAMI Park. Melbourne City are 4th with 7 points from 4 games (in the top four), while Adelaide United sit 12th on 1 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Melbourne City's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Brisbane Roar 3–2 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Adelaide United's last 5: WDDWD Most recently they beat Macarthur 3–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Melbourne City arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.6 for Melbourne City and 1.4 for Adelaide United. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score in 62% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Melbourne City 44%, draw 19%, Adelaide United 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.53.
Value angle: Adelaide United to win at 3.30 – 36% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Melbourne City 1–1 Adelaide United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Melbourne City44%fair 2.25 · @2.00
Draw19%fair 5.16 · @3.75
Adelaide United36%fair 2.76 · @3.30
2.93Expected goals
1.56Melbourne City xG
1.37Adelaide United xG
62%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–08%
1–28%
0–17%
2–06%
From our goals model: Melbourne City 1.6 – 1.4 Adelaide United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Melbourne City to win✗
44%
2.25
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
81%
1.24
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.62
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
1.50
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.49
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Melbourne City / FT Melbourne City✗
25%
4.02
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.25
–
Form
Melbourne City – last 6
WWWWDW
18 Apr
@ Brisbane Roar
3–2
W
12 Apr
vs Wellington Phoenix
2–0
W
7 Apr
vs Central Coast Mariners
2–1
W
4 Apr
vs Western Sydney Wanderers
3–0
W
22 Mar
@ Perth Glory
1–1
D
17 Mar
@ Sydney
1–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Adelaide United – last 6
WDDWDD
19 Apr
vs Macarthur
3–1
W
11 Apr
@ Newcastle Jets
1–1
D
3 Apr
vs Auckland
1–1
D
20 Mar
@ Western Sydney Wanderers
4–2
W
14 Mar
@ Central Coast Mariners
1–1
D
6 Mar
vs Wellington Phoenix
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
100%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Melbourne City and Adelaide United.
What is the prediction for Melbourne City vs Adelaide United?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Melbourne City vs Adelaide United?
On our numbers Melbourne City have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Adelaide United 36%.
How many goals will there be in Melbourne City vs Adelaide United?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Melbourne City vs Adelaide United?
Our predicted score is Melbourne City 1–1 Adelaide United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Melbourne City vs Adelaide United?
Melbourne City vs Adelaide United (A League) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 08:30 (West Africa Time) at AAMI Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
