Macarthur vs Wellington Phoenix prediction & analysis
66%
Footrivo pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.45 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
2
Value bet: Wellington Phoenix to win @ 3.20 – our chance 37% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMacarthur to win ✓42% · @1.97
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗66% · @1.45
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.61
Macarthur vs Wellington Phoenix preview and prediction
The match
Wellington Phoenix travel to Campbelltown Stadium in the A League on Friday 24 April (10:35 WAT) to face Macarthur. Macarthur are 7th with 5 points from 4 games (in the bottom half), while Wellington Phoenix sit 1st on 10 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Macarthur's last 5: LLWWL Most recently they lost to Adelaide United 1–3 away. They average 1.5 scored and 2.7 conceded.
Wellington Phoenix's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Western Sydney Wanderers 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Wellington Phoenix arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.6 for Macarthur and 1.5 for Wellington Phoenix. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score in 66% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Wellington Phoenix to win at 3.20 – 37% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 66% chance at odds of 1.45. Predicted score: Macarthur 1–1 Wellington Phoenix. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Macarthur42%fair 2.39 · @1.97
Draw21%fair 4.81 · @4.00
Wellington Phoenix37%fair 2.68 · @3.20
3.19Expected goals
1.65Macarthur xG
1.54Wellington Phoenix xG
66%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
2–19%
1–28%
1–07%
2–27%
0–16%
From our goals model: Macarthur 1.6 – 1.5 Wellington Phoenix expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Macarthur to win✓
42%
2.39
1.97
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
66%
1.52
1.45
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
1.15
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.60
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
59%
1.69
1.62
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
38%
2.62
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Macarthur / FT Macarthur✓
24%
4.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.61
–
Form
Macarthur – last 6
LLWWLL
19 Apr
@ Adelaide United
1–3
L
12 Apr
@ Perth Glory
1–3
L
2 Apr
vs Newcastle Jets
3–2
W
21 Mar
@ Auckland
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Melbourne Victory
1–4
L
4 Mar
vs Central Coast Mariners
1–3
L
1.5Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Wellington Phoenix – last 6
WLWWWD
18 Apr
vs Western Sydney Wanderers
2–1
W
12 Apr
@ Melbourne City
0–2
L
5 Apr
@ Melbourne Victory
1–0
W
21 Mar
@ Brisbane Roar
2–1
W
14 Mar
vs Perth Glory
2–0
W
6 Mar
@ Adelaide United
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Macarthur and Wellington Phoenix.
What is the prediction for Macarthur vs Wellington Phoenix?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Macarthur vs Wellington Phoenix?
On our numbers Macarthur have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Wellington Phoenix 37%.
How many goals will there be in Macarthur vs Wellington Phoenix?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Macarthur vs Wellington Phoenix?
Our predicted score is Macarthur 1–1 Wellington Phoenix, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Macarthur vs Wellington Phoenix?
Macarthur vs Wellington Phoenix (A League) kicks off on Friday 24 April 2026 at 10:35 (West Africa Time) at Campbelltown Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
