Value bet: Melbourne City to win @ 2.06 – our chance 53% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMelbourne City to win ✓53% · @2.06
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.22
Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne City preview and prediction
The match
Melbourne City travel to Suncorp Stadium in the A League on Saturday 18 April (08:00 WAT) to face Brisbane Roar. Brisbane Roar are 3rd with 7 points from 3 games (in the top four), while Melbourne City sit 4th on 7 points (in the top four). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Brisbane Roar's last 5: DDLDD Most recently they drew with Central Coast Mariners 2–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Melbourne City's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat Wellington Phoenix 2–0 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Melbourne City arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.0 for Brisbane Roar and 1.5 for Melbourne City. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Brisbane Roar 27%, draw 21%, Melbourne City 53%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Melbourne City to win at 2.06 – 53% on our numbers against 49% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Brisbane Roar 0–1 Melbourne City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Brisbane Roar27%fair 3.74 · @3.35
Draw21%fair 4.83 · @3.50
Melbourne City53%fair 1.90 · @2.06
2.54Expected goals
1.00Brisbane Roar xG
1.55Melbourne City xG
57%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–112%
1–112%
0–29%
1–29%
0–08%
1–08%
From our goals model: Brisbane Roar 1.0 – 1.5 Melbourne City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Melbourne City to win✓
53%
1.90
2.06 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
1.95
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
1.36
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Melbourne City / FT Melbourne City✗
30%
3.32
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.22
–
Form
Brisbane Roar – last 6
DDLDDL
10 Apr
@ Central Coast Mariners
2–2
D
2 Apr
vs Sydney
0–0
D
21 Mar
vs Wellington Phoenix
1–2
L
13 Mar
vs Western Sydney Wanderers
2–2
D
28 Feb
vs Perth Glory
1–1
D
21 Feb
@ Sydney
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Melbourne City – last 6
WWWDWD
12 Apr
vs Wellington Phoenix
2–0
W
7 Apr
vs Central Coast Mariners
2–1
W
4 Apr
vs Western Sydney Wanderers
3–0
W
22 Mar
@ Perth Glory
1–1
D
17 Mar
@ Sydney
1–0
W
3 Mar
vs Buriram United
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Brisbane Roar and Melbourne City.
What is the prediction for Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne City?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne City?
On our numbers Brisbane Roar have a 27% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Melbourne City 53%.
How many goals will there be in Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne City?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne City?
Our predicted score is Brisbane Roar 0–1 Melbourne City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne City?
Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne City (A League) kicks off on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 08:00 (West Africa Time) at Suncorp Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
