Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets prediction & analysis
63%
Footrivo pick
Melbourne Victory to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.90 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.90Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultMelbourne Victory to win ✗63% · @1.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✗87% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓67% · @1.30
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓70% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.47
Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets preview and prediction
The match
Melbourne Victory host Newcastle Jets in the A League on Friday 17 April, with kick-off at 10:35 (WAT) at AAMI Park. Melbourne Victory are 9th with 3 points from 4 games (in the bottom half), while Newcastle Jets sit 10th on 2 points (in the bottom three). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Melbourne Victory's last 5: DLWWD Most recently they drew with Auckland 2–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Newcastle Jets's last 5: DLWLW Most recently they drew with Adelaide United 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 2.3 for Melbourne Victory and 1.3 for Newcastle Jets. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score in 67% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Melbourne Victory to win – a 63% chance at odds of 1.90, above our fair price of 1.58, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Melbourne Victory 2–1 Newcastle Jets. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Melbourne Victory63%fair 1.58 · @1.90
Draw13%fair 7.71 · @4.10
Newcastle Jets24%fair 4.21 · @3.30
3.50Expected goals
2.25Melbourne Victory xG
1.25Newcastle Jets xG
67%Both score
70%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
1–18%
2–08%
3–17%
1–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: Melbourne Victory 2.3 – 1.3 Newcastle Jets expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Melbourne Victory to win✗
63%
1.58
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
87%
1.15
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
67%
1.50
1.30
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
1.09
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.30
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
50%
1.98
2.00
Half-time result
Melbourne Victory ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Melbourne Victory / FT Melbourne Victory✗
39%
2.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.47
–
Form
Melbourne Victory – last 6
DLWWDD
11 Apr
@ Auckland
2–2
D
5 Apr
vs Wellington Phoenix
0–1
L
21 Mar
vs Central Coast Mariners
4–1
W
15 Mar
vs Macarthur
4–1
W
7 Mar
@ Sydney
2–2
D
27 Feb
vs Adelaide United
1–1
D
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Newcastle Jets – last 6
DLWLWD
11 Apr
vs Adelaide United
1–1
D
2 Apr
@ Macarthur
2–3
L
22 Mar
@ Sydney
2–1
W
14 Mar
vs Auckland
1–2
L
7 Mar
vs Western Sydney Wanderers
2–1
W
28 Feb
@ Central Coast Mariners
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Melbourne Victory and Newcastle Jets.
What is the prediction for Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets?
Our pick is Melbourne Victory to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.90.
Who will win Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets?
On our numbers Melbourne Victory have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Newcastle Jets 24%.
How many goals will there be in Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets?
Our predicted score is Melbourne Victory 2–1 Newcastle Jets, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets?
Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets (A League) kicks off on Friday 17 April 2026 at 10:35 (West Africa Time) at AAMI Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
