Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix prediction & analysis
79%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultMelbourne City to win ✓60% · @1.63
Double chanceMelbourne City or draw ✓85% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.43
Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix preview and prediction
The match
Wellington Phoenix travel to AAMI Park in the A League on Sunday 12 April (06:00 WAT) to face Melbourne City. Melbourne City are 4th with 7 points from 4 games (in the top four), while Wellington Phoenix sit 1st on 10 points (top of the table). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Melbourne City's last 5: WWDWD Most recently they beat Central Coast Mariners 2–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Wellington Phoenix's last 5: WWWDL Most recently they beat Melbourne Victory 1–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.0 for Melbourne City and 0.9 for Wellington Phoenix. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Melbourne City 60%, draw 24%, Wellington Phoenix 15%.
Safer route: Melbourne City or draw (85%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.62.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Melbourne City 2–0 Wellington Phoenix. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Melbourne City60%fair 1.66 · @1.63
Draw24%fair 4.08 · @3.95
Wellington Phoenix15%fair 6.53 · @4.90
2.94Expected goals
2.00Melbourne City xG
0.94Wellington Phoenix xG
60%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–011%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Melbourne City 2.0 – 0.9 Wellington Phoenix expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Melbourne City to win✓
60%
1.66
1.63
Double chance
Melbourne City or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.75
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
1.50
Half-time result
Melbourne City ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Melbourne City / FT Melbourne City✓
40%
2.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.43
–
Form
Melbourne City – last 6
WWDWDL
7 Apr
vs Central Coast Mariners
2–1
W
4 Apr
vs Western Sydney Wanderers
3–0
W
22 Mar
@ Perth Glory
1–1
D
17 Mar
@ Sydney
1–0
W
3 Mar
vs Buriram United
1–1
D
28 Feb
@ Auckland
0–3
L
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Wellington Phoenix – last 6
WWWDLL
5 Apr
@ Melbourne Victory
1–0
W
21 Mar
@ Brisbane Roar
2–1
W
14 Mar
vs Perth Glory
2–0
W
6 Mar
@ Adelaide United
1–1
D
1 Mar
vs Sydney
0–1
L
21 Feb
vs Auckland
0–5
L
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Melbourne City and Wellington Phoenix.
What is the prediction for Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix?
On our numbers Melbourne City have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Wellington Phoenix 15%.
How many goals will there be in Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix?
Our predicted score is Melbourne City 2–0 Wellington Phoenix, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix?
Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix (A League) kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 06:00 (West Africa Time) at AAMI Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
