Double chanceMelbourne Victory or draw ✗90% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗83% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 8.96
Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix preview and prediction
The match
Wellington Phoenix travel to AAMI Park in the A League on Sunday 5 April (06:00 WAT) to face Melbourne Victory. Melbourne Victory are 9th with 3 points from 4 games (in the bottom half), while Wellington Phoenix sit 1st on 10 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Melbourne Victory's last 5: WWDDW Most recently they beat Central Coast Mariners 4–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game.
Wellington Phoenix's last 5: WWDLL Most recently they beat Brisbane Roar 2–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Melbourne Victory arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 2.4 for Melbourne Victory and 0.9 for Wellington Phoenix. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 63% and both teams to score at 59%.
Safer route: Melbourne Victory or draw (90%) at 1.13.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.57.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Melbourne Victory to win – a 70% chance at odds of 1.50, above our fair price of 1.44, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Melbourne Victory 2–0 Wellington Phoenix. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Melbourne Victory70%fair 1.44 · @1.50
Draw20%fair 4.91 · @4.45
Wellington Phoenix10%fair 9.94 · @5.60
3.23Expected goals
2.38Melbourne Victory xG
0.85Wellington Phoenix xG
59%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
2–110%
1–09%
3–09%
1–18%
3–18%
From our goals model: Melbourne Victory 2.4 – 0.9 Wellington Phoenix expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Melbourne Victory to win✗
70%
1.44
1.50
Double chance
Melbourne Victory or draw✗
90%
1.11
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.70
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
83%
1.21
1.15
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
63%
1.58
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
58%
1.71
1.65
Half-time result
Melbourne Victory ahead at half-time✗
52%
1.92
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Melbourne Victory / FT Melbourne Victory✗
48%
2.10
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
8.96
–
Form
Melbourne Victory – last 6
WWDDWD
21 Mar
vs Central Coast Mariners
4–1
W
15 Mar
vs Macarthur
4–1
W
7 Mar
@ Sydney
2–2
D
27 Feb
vs Adelaide United
1–1
D
21 Feb
@ Melbourne City
3–1
W
14 Feb
vs Brisbane Roar
1–1
D
2.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Wellington Phoenix – last 6
WWDLLD
21 Mar
@ Brisbane Roar
2–1
W
14 Mar
vs Perth Glory
2–0
W
6 Mar
@ Adelaide United
1–1
D
1 Mar
vs Sydney
0–1
L
21 Feb
vs Auckland
0–5
L
13 Feb
@ Western Sydney Wanderers
2–2
D
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Melbourne Victory and Wellington Phoenix.
What is the prediction for Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix?
Our pick is Melbourne Victory to win with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix?
On our numbers Melbourne Victory have a 70% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Wellington Phoenix 10%.
How many goals will there be in Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix?
Our predicted score is Melbourne Victory 2–0 Wellington Phoenix, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix?
Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix (A League) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 06:00 (West Africa Time) at AAMI Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
