Melbourne Victory vs Macarthur prediction & analysis
61%
Footrivo pick
Melbourne Victory to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.63 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.75Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultMelbourne Victory to win ✓61% · @1.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✓82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.44
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.80
Melbourne Victory vs Macarthur preview and prediction
The match
Melbourne Victory host Macarthur in the A League on Sunday 15 March, with kick-off at 09:00 (WAT) at AAMI Park. Melbourne Victory are 9th with 3 points from 4 games (in the bottom half), while Macarthur sit 7th on 5 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Melbourne Victory's last 4: DDWD Most recently they drew with Sydney 2–2 away. They average 1.8 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Macarthur's last 4: LLLD Most recently they lost to Central Coast Mariners 1–3 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Melbourne Victory arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.9 for Melbourne Victory and 0.9 for Macarthur. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 63%.
Our pre-match pick was Melbourne Victory to win – a 61% chance at odds of 1.75, above our fair price of 1.63, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Melbourne Victory 1–0 Macarthur. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Melbourne Victory61%fair 1.63 · @1.75
Draw18%fair 5.43 · @3.80
Macarthur20%fair 4.93 · @3.80
2.80Expected goals
1.87Melbourne Victory xG
0.93Macarthur xG
63%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–011%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%
From our goals model: Melbourne Victory 1.9 – 0.9 Macarthur expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Melbourne Victory to win✓
61%
1.63
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
82%
1.23
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.60
1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
–
Half-time result
Melbourne Victory ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Melbourne Victory / FT Melbourne Victory✓
37%
2.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.80
–
Form
Melbourne Victory – last 4
DDWD
7 Mar
@ Sydney
2–2
D
27 Feb
vs Adelaide United
1–1
D
21 Feb
@ Melbourne City
3–1
W
14 Feb
vs Brisbane Roar
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Macarthur – last 4
LLLD
4 Mar
vs Central Coast Mariners
1–3
L
28 Feb
vs Western Sydney Wanderers
0–4
L
22 Feb
@ Newcastle Jets
0–1
L
19 Feb
vs Bangkok United
2–2
D
0.8Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Melbourne Victory and Macarthur.
What is the prediction for Melbourne Victory vs Macarthur?
Our pick is Melbourne Victory to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Melbourne Victory vs Macarthur?
On our numbers Melbourne Victory have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Macarthur 20%.
How many goals will there be in Melbourne Victory vs Macarthur?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Melbourne Victory vs Macarthur?
Our predicted score is Melbourne Victory 1–0 Macarthur, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Melbourne Victory vs Macarthur?
Melbourne Victory vs Macarthur (A League) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 09:00 (West Africa Time) at AAMI Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
