Adelaide United vs Wellington Phoenix prediction & analysis
66%
Footrivo pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
1
Value bet: Adelaide United to win @ 1.77 – our chance 61% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAdelaide United to win ✗61% · @1.77
Double chanceEither team to win ✗83% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓66% · @1.48
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.26
Adelaide United vs Wellington Phoenix preview and prediction
The match
Wellington Phoenix travel to Coopers Stadium in the A League on Friday 6 March (09:35 WAT) to face Adelaide United. Adelaide United are 12th with 1 points from 3 games (in the bottom three), while Wellington Phoenix sit 1st on 10 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Adelaide United's last 3: DWW Most recently they drew with Melbourne Victory 1–1 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Wellington Phoenix's last 3: LLD Most recently they lost to Sydney 0–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Adelaide United arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 2.1 for Adelaide United and 1.2 for Wellington Phoenix. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score in 66% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Adelaide United 61%, draw 17%, Wellington Phoenix 22%.
Both teams to score: yes (66%) at 1.48.
Value angle: Adelaide United to win at 1.77 – 61% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 66% chance at odds of 1.48. Predicted score: Adelaide United 2–1 Wellington Phoenix. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Adelaide United61%fair 1.64 · @1.77
Draw17%fair 5.84 · @4.20
Wellington Phoenix22%fair 4.55 · @3.70
3.34Expected goals
2.15Adelaide United xG
1.19Wellington Phoenix xG
66%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
1–19%
2–08%
1–08%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Adelaide United 2.1 – 1.2 Wellington Phoenix expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Adelaide United to win✗
61%
1.64
1.77 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
83%
1.21
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
66%
1.51
1.48
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.14
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.55
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.65
Half-time result
Adelaide United ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Adelaide United / FT Adelaide United✗
38%
2.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.26
–
Form
Adelaide United – last 3
DWW
27 Feb
@ Melbourne Victory
1–1
D
20 Feb
vs Perth Glory
4–0
W
14 Feb
@ Sydney
2–1
W
2.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Wellington Phoenix – last 3
LLD
1 Mar
vs Sydney
0–1
L
21 Feb
vs Auckland
0–5
L
13 Feb
@ Western Sydney Wanderers
2–2
D
0.7Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Adelaide United and Wellington Phoenix.
What is the prediction for Adelaide United vs Wellington Phoenix?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Adelaide United vs Wellington Phoenix?
On our numbers Adelaide United have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Wellington Phoenix 22%.
How many goals will there be in Adelaide United vs Wellington Phoenix?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Adelaide United vs Wellington Phoenix?
Our predicted score is Adelaide United 2–1 Wellington Phoenix, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Adelaide United vs Wellington Phoenix?
Adelaide United vs Wellington Phoenix (A League) kicks off on Friday 6 March 2026 at 09:35 (West Africa Time) at Coopers Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
